304 Cedar Hill Dr · Pearl, MS 39208

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 185 Days on market

Built 2000 10,454 sqft lot $95/sqft · 6% below area Est $182k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

So much space for the money. This is the one you have been waiting on. Spacious 3 bed 2 bath with huge living area, open kitchen and breakfast room. Kitchen has so much storage, including built in dining room hutch. Large fenced front yard and fenced backyard. metal roof, Covered back patio and separate storage building. Pearl schools and close to everything.

Key facts

• Breakfast room
• Huge living area
• Fenced front yard

Tags

• HUGE LIVING AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST ROOM
• BUILT IN DINING ROOM HUTCH
• FENCED FRONT YARD
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.5% in Pearl — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#19 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,078 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.43%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,953
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -6.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Woodridge Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,765 (-2%)	2mo	$287,000	$163	74
203 Trace Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (0%)	24mo	$44,900	$25	70
308 London Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-9%)	4mo	$265,000	$163	62
102 Woodridge Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,561 (-13%)	3mo	$270,000	$173	62
119 Woodridge Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (-2%)	23mo	$269,900	$153	53
130 Woodridge Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,655 (-8%)	14mo	$279,900	$169	52
121 Live Oaks Blvd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,619 (-10%)	14mo	$269,000	$166	50
102 Cherry Bark Way	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,707 (-5%)	12mo	$264,900	$155	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,290
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $26,838
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39208

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $379/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,258

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Cedar Ridge Blvd Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1792	$1,000	$0.56	21d	1	0.07mi
102 Red Oak Cv Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,031	$1.44	14d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 166 DOM
16. 2025-12-15
    listed $170,000 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    So much space for the money. This is the one you have been waiting on. Spacious 3 bed 2 bath with huge living area, open kitchen and breakfast room. Kitchen has so much storage, including built in dining room hutch. Large fenced front yard and fenced backyard. metal roof, Covered back patio and separate storage building. Pearl schools and close to everything.

17. 2006-01-30
    historical
18. 2005-09-16
    soldstatus
19. 2005-07-15
    listed $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $379 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,343 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$964/yr (+$80/mo · 254.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$379
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$185
• After-tax cash flow: $2,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pearl

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #5662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 34,442
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 34,442
• Household income: $65,480
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1235.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.11%
• Current HPI: 193.0609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+286.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $170,000 MLSU
• 2006-01-30 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2005-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-15 Listed $44,000 MLSU