27701 Murrieta Rd Spc 76 · Menifee, CA 92586

$149,999

8 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,469 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2003 $102/sqft · 66% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming manufactured home nestled in the serene community of Hillside Mobile Home Estates, built in 2003. This delightful residence offers three spacious bedrooms plus an additional office or den, providing ample space for both relaxation and productivity. Impeccably remodeled, this home is move-in ready and boasts modern upgrades that enhance its appeal and functionality. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for entertaining or family gatherings. Outside, you'll find a fenced backyard, offering privacy and a perfect spot for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply enjoying the tranquility of your surroundings. A convenient shed provides extra storage space for tools and equipment, ensuring everything has its place. This home represents a perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience, making it an ideal choice for those seeking a peaceful retreat in a welcoming community.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Fenced backyard
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,067/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1163% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.00%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,500
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: 50.75%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $81,380
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $237,316
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92586

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $828/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$644
• Net cashflow: $1,505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,162

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,590	-5% $1,547	+0% $1,505	+5% $1,462	+10% $1,420
Rent	-10% $1,263	-5% $1,384	+0% $1,505	+5% $1,626	+10% $1,747
Rate	-1.0pp $1,580	-0.5pp $1,543	base $1,505	+0.5pp $1,466	+1.0pp $1,427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,999 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,999 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,999 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,999 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,999 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,999 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,999 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,999 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,999 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-03-19
    listed $149,999 Active 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    Welcome to this charming manufactured home nestled in the serene community of Hillside Mobile Home Estates, built in 2003. This delightful residence offers three spacious bedrooms plus an additional office or den, providing ample space for both relaxation and productivity. Impeccably remodeled, this home is move-in ready and boasts modern upgrades that enhance its appeal and functionality. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for entertaining or family gatherings. Outside, you'll find a fenced backyard, offering privacy and a perfect spot for outdoor activities, gardening, or simply enjoying the tranquility of your surroundings. A convenient shed provides extra storage space for tools and equipment, ensuring everything has its place. This home represents a perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience, making it an ideal choice for those seeking a peaceful retreat in a welcoming community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $828 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,140 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$312/yr (+$26/mo · 37.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$828
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,944
• − Management: −$2,944
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $16,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,977
• After-tax cash flow: $14,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Menifee, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,767
• Household income: $57,708
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1163.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $149,999 SDMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $828 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.