1757 Grado Ct · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,318 sqft · Land · 87 Days on market

Built 2026 10,694 sqft lot $189/sqft · at area comps Est $250k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New construction 3 bed, 2 bath home in peaceful rural Rio Rico; situated on a quiet cul-de-sac. Enjoy abundant wildlife viewing and stunning night skies. Open-concept living area features kitchen island; includes 2-car garage and indoor laundry. Ready for immediate move-in.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Cayetano Elementary School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #810 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 393 students, 69% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $249k implies a 1145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,263 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.75%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,908
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -0.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $121,775
• Equity at exit: $224,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $369,568
• Equity at exit: $483,752

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $217,498

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-132	+0% $-218	+5% $-304	+10% $-390
Rent	-10% $-368	-5% $-293	+0% $-218	+5% $-143	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-92	-0.5pp $-154	base $-218	+0.5pp $-282	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Alemania Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,500	$1.12	12d	1	0.19mi
117 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,500	$1.60	3d	1	0.19mi
1808 Cajeme Ct Rio Rico, AZ	4.0	2.0	1725	$1,850	$1.07	3d	1	0.72mi
1859 Tijuana Ct Rio Rico, AZ	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,600	$1.30	3d	1	0.87mi
1878 Circulo Girasol Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,700	$1.07	3d	1	0.87mi
1731 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	3d	1	0.89mi
65 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,200	$1.56	3d	1	1.04mi
54 Camino Olympia Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,800	$1.16	3d	1	1.33mi
1719 Camino Pacifico Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	45d	1	1.34mi
1719 Camino Pacifico Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	13d	1	1.34mi
1691 Gamo Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	16d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $249,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    New construction 3 bed, 2 bath home in peaceful rural Rio Rico; situated on a quiet cul-de-sac. Enjoy abundant wildlife viewing and stunning night skies. Open-concept living area features kitchen island; includes 2-car garage and indoor laundry. Ready for immediate move-in.

17. 2026-03-26
    listed $255,000 Active 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    New construction 3 bed, 2 bath home in peaceful rural Rio Rico; situated on a quiet cul-de-sac. Enjoy abundant wildlife viewing and stunning night skies. Open-concept living area features kitchen island; includes 2-car garage and indoor laundry. Ready for immediate move-in.

18. 2024-03-21
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$6,993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,678
• After-tax cash flow: $-934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1145.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $249,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-26 Listed $255,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $133 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.