The Bonnell (162) Plan · Austin, TX 78610

$291,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,614 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. A convenient second-floor laundry simplifies the chore.

Key facts

• Second-floor laundry
• Covered patio
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• JACK-AND-JILL BATHROOM
• SECOND-FLOOR LAUNDRY

🏗️ New construction. The $291,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $375,465.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-815 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1002 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,257 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.31%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,465
• List price: $291,990
• Delta: -22.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6501 Night Chinook Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+0%)	0mo	$315,000	$195	88
6415 Turner Coach Trl	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+5%)	11mo	$369,990	$219	72
6411 Turner Coach Trl	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+5%)	12mo	$359,990	$213	71
6407 Turner Coach Trl	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+5%)	12mo	$364,990	$216	70
6402 Turner Coach Trl	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+5%)	11mo	$359,490	$213	69
6401 Turner Coach Trl	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,463 (-9%)	14mo	$335,725	$229	67
6405 Rounded Pebble Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,719 (+6%)	10mo	$349,800	$203	66
13010 Barrister Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,497 (-7%)	14mo	$345,000	$230	63
6607 Mallord Brook Bnd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,497 (-7%)	13mo	$324,990	$217	63
12901 Brave Tenderfoot Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-7%)	11mo	$355,530	$237	60
6822 Rounded Pebble Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,844 (+14%)	9mo	$419,691	$228	56
13001 Cerulean Spring Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-7%)	1mo	$324,990	$217	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-119,331
• Equity at exit: $55,983

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.87×
• Total profit: $-196,143
• Equity at exit: $32,463

Cash invested: $105,130 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1002
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,969
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,632/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-815

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,284

Max offer price $257,501

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-556	-5% $-685	+0% $-815	+5% $-945	+10% $-1,075
Rent	-10% $-993	-5% $-904	+0% $-815	+5% $-726	+10% $-637
Rate	-1.0pp $-626	-0.5pp $-720	base $-815	+0.5pp $-913	+1.0pp $-1,011

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,866
• Closing costs: $11,264
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12309 Dairywork Rd Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,300	$1.36	44d	1	0.24mi
6401 Mallord Brook Bnd Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$2,900	$1.40	44d	1	0.27mi
13013 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,050	$1.29	44d	1	0.27mi
13107 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,200	$1.38	44d	1	0.29mi
12809 Village Spun Plz Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,000	$1.14	24d	1	0.36mi
11633 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,995	$1.32	44d	1	1.06mi
11620 Comano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,600	$1.68	5d	1	1.10mi
11416 Milano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$2,050	$1.21	44d	1	1.22mi
11701 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,995	$1.32	17d	1	1.25mi
5705 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,150	$1.40	21d	1	1.26mi
5604 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,920	$1.33	3d	1	1.27mi
11612 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,400	$1.44	18d	1	1.28mi
4907 Escape Rivera Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,350	$1.37	18d	1	1.31mi
11513 Murano Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$2,100	$1.43	44d	1	1.34mi
11802 Hurricane Haze Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2146	$2,845	$1.33	21d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $291,990 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $291,990 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $291,990 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $291,990 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $291,990 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $291,990 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $291,990 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $291,990 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $284,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $284,990 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,990 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    price $284,990 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. A convenient second-floor laundry simplifies the chore.

16. 2026-03-25
    listed $299,990 Active 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. A convenient second-floor laundry simplifies the chore.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,032
• − Property taxes: −$5,632
• − Insurance: −$1,877
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$10,923
• Taxable loss: −$16,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,022
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Listed $299,990 Zillow