11531 Tangle Branch Ln · Gibsonton, FL 33534

$435,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2013 5,550 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come enjoy the convenience and affordability of Tanglewood Preserve! Our Roosevelt floor plan offers 3139sqft of living space at an incredible value. This two story home has an inviting open floor plan with dramatic family room that boasts an 18' high ceiling. The kitchen has a large island with plenty of cabinet and counter space for cooking and entertaining. The master suite offers a spa-like bathroom walk in shower, double sinks and oversized walk-in closet . This green built home qualifies for the prestigious Enviroments for Living program. Hurry in today and make your own design selections!

Key facts

• Tandem garage
• Hurricane shutters
• Versatile loft

Tags

• ONE BEDROOM ON FIRST FLOOR
• VERSATILE LOFT
• NEW ROOF
• HURRICANE SHUTTERS
• SCREENED PATIO ENCLOSURE
• TANDEM GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Citadel Property Management); HOA dues $25 monthly (or $75 quarterly); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Underground utilities; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.13-acre lot (approx. 50 x 111)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Screened porch; Porch; Sidewalks; Hurricane shutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; In-wall pest control system; Stone countertops; Walk-in closets; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-411 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#479 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,080/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 487% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $435k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $308,049 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-80,461
• Equity at exit: $64,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-29,918
• Equity at exit: $37,611

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33534

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,290/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$647
• Net cashflow: $-411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,601

Max offer price $362,332

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11521 Southern Creek Dr Gibsonton, FL	4.0	3.5	2650	$3,199	$1.21	11d	1	0.10mi
12113 Fox Bloom Ave Gibsonton, FL	3.0	3.0	2540	$2,800	$1.10	24d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $435,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $435,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $435,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $435,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $435,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $435,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,290 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,290 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$4,290
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,957
• − Management: −$2,957
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$12,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,056
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gibsonton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #8752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gibsonton, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 17,740
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,740
• Household income: $80,484
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 36% Two or more races 23% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.07%
• Current HPI: 323.4367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-92.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $435,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-29 Sold (MLS) $210,297 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-10 Listed $205,475 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $2,322,300 Public Records
• 2008-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $5,989,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,290 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.