8404 Leander St · Houston, TX 77012

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,833 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2004 3,846 sqft lot $106/sqft · 24% below area Est $257k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value in a convenient Houston location! This spacious 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offers a unique floor plan with plenty of living space and timeless potential throughout. With cosmetic updates needed, this property presents an ideal canvas for renovation, allowing you to personalize finishes, modernize interiors, and substantially increase equity. Situated less than a minute from Highway 225 and the 610 Loop, commuting throughout the Houston area is a breeze — whether heading toward Downtown, the East End, Pasadena, or the Energy Corridor. Schedule your private tour now!

Key facts

• 3,846 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car); Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2004; Slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (two on the first floor, two on the second floor)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harris J R El (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 309 students, 96% FRL); Deady Middle (math 8% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 588 students, 96% FRL); Milby H S (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,023 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,107 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,901 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.10%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,785
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -24.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7918 Anza Cir	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,583 (-14%)	6mo	$230,000	$145	52
7710 Scanlock St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-11%)	22mo	$260,000	$160	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-44,431
• Equity at exit: $37,144

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-57,776
• Equity at exit: $31,052

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77012

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$479 /mo · $5,753/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,004

Max offer price $137,901

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-213	-5% $-268	+0% $-323	+5% $-378	+10% $-434
Rent	-10% $-449	-5% $-386	+0% $-323	+5% $-260	+10% $-197
Rate	-1.0pp $-225	-0.5pp $-274	base $-323	+0.5pp $-374	+1.0pp $-425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2917 Iola St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1824	$1,595	$0.87	45d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $195,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,999 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-04-21
    listed $205,000 Active 634-char remark
14. 2026-04-21
    historical
15. 2026-04-04
    price $205,000
16. 2026-03-03
    price $210,000
17. 2026-02-01
    price $219,000
18. 2026-01-20
    price $229,000
19. 2026-01-07
    price $239,000
20. 2025-12-25
    listed $250,000 Active
21. 2005-09-15
    soldstatus
22. 2004-09-30
    historical
23. 2004-04-05
    listed $142,000
24. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,753 · $479/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,753 · $479/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,753
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$7,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,739
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 16,780

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 92% Two or more races 35% Black 5% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.08%
• Current HPI: 274.5729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+37.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-25 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2005-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-04-05 Listed $142,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,753 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.