Carlyle Plan · Paradise, NV 89121

$131,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 90 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $132k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#10 in NV, #3,494 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A-, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, crime D-.
• Clark County School District (urban): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 17 in NV (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smith Hal Es (math 6% / reading 12%, grade F, #396 of 402 statewide, top 99%, 708 students, 100% FRL); Harney Kathleen & Tim Ms (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #81 of 109 statewide, top 74%, 1,279 students, 100% FRL); Chaparral Hs (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #128 of 131 statewide, top 98%, 2,256 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 52% district-wide (48 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Clark County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 413 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 14,754 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (2,301 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $912 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,029 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.24%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,984
• Equity at exit: $19,667

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,969
• Equity at exit: $11,404

Cash invested: $36,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89121

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 413
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$165 /mo · $1,978/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,154

Max offer price $131,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $437	-5% $391	+0% $346	+5% $300	+10% $255
Rent	-10% $220	-5% $283	+0% $346	+5% $409	+10% $472
Rate	-1.0pp $412	-0.5pp $379	base $346	+0.5pp $312	+1.0pp $277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,975
• Closing costs: $3,957
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3800 S Nellis Blvd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,635	$1.73	0d	24	0.16mi
5051 Sitka Ln Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,225	$0.97	45d	1	0.21mi
5101 E Twain Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$1,150	$1.47	45d	4	0.26mi
3850 Mountain Vista St Las Vegas, NV	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,406	$1.75	16d	9	0.43mi
4455 E Twain Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	871	$1,352	$1.55	0d	9	0.52mi
4516 Charles Ronald Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1613	$3,800	$2.36	45d	1	0.60mi
3956 Clear View Dr Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1306	$2,600	$1.99	19d	1	0.64mi
4014 Great Plains Way Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,548	$1.34	6d	1	0.80mi
4264 White Sands Ave Las Vegas, NV	4.0	2.0	1392	$1,650	$1.19	13d	1	0.87mi
3400 Cabana Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0–3.0	2.0	1124	$1,350	$1.20	23d	2	0.89mi
3400 Cabana Dr #2019 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,350	$1.28	16d	1	0.89mi
3400 Cabana Dr #2049 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,350	$1.28	0d	1	0.89mi
3055 S Nellis Blvd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,432	$1.46	0d	41	0.93mi
3037 Aloha Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,750	$1.38	0d	1	0.94mi
3021 Aloha Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,800	$1.42	5d	1	0.96mi
4717 Woodland Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.5	1742	$2,250	$1.29	14d	1	0.99mi
4549 Oakdale Ave Las Vegas, NV	4.0	2.0	1496	$1,800	$1.20	0d	1	1.03mi
4379 Hilldale Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	954	$1,485	$1.56	9d	1	1.05mi
4855 E Vegas Valley Dr Las Vegas, NV	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,579	$1.66	0d	13	1.09mi
2977 Juniper Hills Blvd #104 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	896	$1,050	$1.17	9d	1	1.15mi
2975 Juniper Hills Blvd #204 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	884	$1,000	$1.13	45d	1	1.16mi
2979 Juniper Hills Blvd #203 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	889	$1,195	$1.34	22d	1	1.16mi
2985 Juniper Hills Blvd #203 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	884	$1,000	$1.13	9d	1	1.18mi
2985 Juniper Hills Blvd #102 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	891	$1,225	$1.37	16d	1	1.18mi
2967 Juniper Hills Blvd Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	884	$1,190	$1.35	19d	1	1.19mi
2967 Juniper Hills Blvd #203 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	884	$1,190	$1.35	45d	1	1.19mi
2967 Juniper Hills Blvd #104 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	4.0	891	$1,350	$1.52	45d	1	1.19mi
4640 Vegas Valley Dr Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,340	$1.57	45d	1	1.20mi
2963 Juniper Hills Blvd #204 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	884	$1,250	$1.41	45d	1	1.20mi
2963 Juniper Hills Blvd #204 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	884	$1,250	$1.41	18d	1	1.20mi
2982 Juniper Hills Blvd #202 Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,700	$1.58	45d	1	1.22mi
2980 Juniper Hills Blvd #103 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	896	$1,090	$1.22	14d	1	1.22mi
2980 Juniper Hills Blvd Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	896	$1,090	$1.22	5d	1	1.22mi
2978 Juniper Hills Blvd #204 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	884	$1,245	$1.41	22d	1	1.22mi
2883 Wheelwright Dr Unit 1 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	918	$1,195	$1.30	9d	1	1.23mi
2962 Juniper Hills Blvd #104 Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,550	$1.44	45d	1	1.23mi
2972 Juniper Hills Blvd #202 Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,445	$1.35	16d	1	1.24mi
2824 Poppyseed Way Las Vegas, NV	4.0	2.0	1332	$1,790	$1.34	16d	1	1.25mi
4570 Carriage Park Dr Unit B Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	918	$1,395	$1.52	19d	1	1.27mi
2967 Ferndale St Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,835	$1.62	25d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $131,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $131,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $131,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $131,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-03-04
   listed $131,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,978
• − Insurance: −$660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − Depreciation: −$3,837
• Taxable income: $2,181
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$523
• After-tax cash flow: $3,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for cosmetic updates and landscaping improvements to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200060
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,611
• Composite: 26.48/100
• National rank: #7211
• State rank: #11 of 17 in NV

Livability — Paradise

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3494

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise, NV
• County: Clark County · 2,306,105 people
• City population: 227,885
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• Population (ZIP): 68,406
• Household income: $55,758
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 4080.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,504,101 people
• By 2030: 2,693,770 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 3,061,208 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 3,400,072 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 4,139,522 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 4,596,916 · +83.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 31% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.4% · R 47.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+10.7 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.85%
• Current HPI: 302.201
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.10%
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $131,900 Zillow