2208 Allison Crk · Marion, TX 78124

$221,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $133/sqft · 19% below area Est $275k · 19% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ramsey - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 418 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,500 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,018
• List price: $221,999
• Delta: -19.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2219 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (0%)	1mo	$216,999	$130	99
705 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-4%)	1mo	$219,999	$137	93
746 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-4%)	1mo	$219,999	$137	93
111 Petey Pl	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,795 (+8%)	1mo	$263,999	$147	82
127 Petey Pl	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,795 (+8%)	1mo	$268,999	$150	82
2223 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+11%)	1mo	$232,999	$126	81
2111 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+11%)	1mo	$232,999	$126	81
2215 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+13%)	2mo	$232,999	$124	75
143 Petey Pl	0.00mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,886 (+13%)	0mo	$240,999	$128	69
701 Thea Mdws	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-6%)	1mo	$240,999	$153	68
121 Lost Pines Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (-0%)	1mo	$315,000	$190	67
2760 Pioneer Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	1mo	$250,000	$170	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-51,025
• Equity at exit: $33,101

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-63,671
• Equity at exit: $19,194

Cash invested: $62,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 418
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,330/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,995

Max offer price $187,685

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-160	+0% $-237	+5% $-314	+10% $-391
Rent	-10% $-371	-5% $-304	+0% $-237	+5% $-170	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-181	base $-237	+0.5pp $-295	+1.0pp $-353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,500
• Closing costs: $6,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 W Schulz St Marion, TX	3.0	1.5	1109	$1,695	$1.53	6d	1	0.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 615-char remark

   Show marketing remark (615 chars)

   The Ramsey - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $221,999 615-char remark

   Show marketing remark (615 chars)

   The Ramsey - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-28
   price $225,999 615-char remark

   Show marketing remark (615 chars)

   The Ramsey - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-10
   price $243,999 615-char remark

   Show marketing remark (615 chars)

   The Ramsey - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-03-17
   listed $253,999 New 615-char remark

   Show marketing remark (615 chars)

   The Ramsey - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,435
• − Property taxes: −$3,330
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,458
• Taxable loss: −$6,752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,620
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The landscaping and curb appeal can be improved to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can improve the home's aesthetic and potentially its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can improve the home's aesthetic and potentially its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $221,999 LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $225,999 LERA
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $243,999 LERA
• 2026-03-17 Listed $253,999 LERA