36171 W Prado St · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$284,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,503 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2009 6,635 sqft lot $190/sqft · 17% below area Est $344k · 17% under $85/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

''PRICE ADJUSTMENT''Charming and updated single-story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,504 sq ft of thoughtfully refreshed living space. Interior upgrades include fresh paint throughout the home and garage, commercial-grade laminate flooring and tile with no carpet, and updated ceiling fans, light fixtures, and LED lighting. There are nice improvements, including a newer A/C unit, a new garage door, and recently cleaned air ducts for enhanced comfort. Step outside to a beautifully landscaped backyard with lush grass, plus dual gates and a convenient access door from the garage for added versatility, making for a secluded retreat to BBQ and entertain. Put this one on your list!

Key facts

• 6,635 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2009

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Santa Cruz Elementary School (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #536 of 1,109 statewide, top 49%, 764 students, 59% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $285k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,587 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.93%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,344
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: -17.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36196 W Vera Cruz Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+2%)	1mo	$345,000	$226	93
36129 W Prado St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+14%)	2mo	$360,000	$210	73
19363 N Barano Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	0mo	$300,000	$191	69
36797 W Nina St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+6%)	1mo	$309,990	$195	68
36218 W Olivo St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,718 (+14%)	3mo	$357,000	$208	67
19561 N Barano Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	3mo	$299,990	$191	66
37073 W Olivo St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	1mo	$301,990	$193	65
35315 W Vera Cruz Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+6%)	1mo	$325,000	$204	64
18570 N Toledo Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+4%)	3mo	$295,000	$188	62
37279 W LA Paz St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-8%)	1mo	$275,000	$199	54
18953 N Avelino Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,705 (+13%)	1mo	$332,990	$195	53
36795 W Santa Maria St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,705 (+13%)	3mo	$309,990	$182	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-43,248
• Equity at exit: $70,310

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-49,333
• Equity at exit: $75,150

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,722/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,331

Max offer price $227,014

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-166	-5% $-247	+0% $-328	+5% $-408	+10% $-489
Rent	-10% $-479	-5% $-403	+0% $-328	+5% $-252	+10% $-176
Rate	-1.0pp $-184	-0.5pp $-255	base $-328	+0.5pp $-402	+1.0pp $-477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19270 N Costa Verdez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,610	$1.32	45d	1	0.19mi
19270 N Costa Verdez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,645	$1.35	0d	1	0.19mi
36635 W Honeycutt Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	972	$2,259	$2.32	0d	83	0.23mi
18853 N Vemto St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2233	$1,895	$0.85	26d	1	0.35mi
36033 W San Clemente Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1775	$1,700	$0.96	45d	1	0.37mi
35455 W Cartegna Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,200	$1.20	12d	1	0.48mi
36972 W Prado St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,700	$1.08	18d	1	0.51mi
37014 W Prado St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,700	$1.08	18d	1	0.53mi
36043 W Santa Clara Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	3d	1	0.53mi
37043 W Vera Cruz Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,300	$1.26	0d	1	0.56mi
35916 W Catalonia Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2129	$2,100	$0.99	3d	1	0.60mi
35448 W Santa Barbara Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,600	$1.21	13d	1	0.62mi
18392 N Los Gabrieles Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,785	$1.07	6d	1	0.63mi
36148 W Seville Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1950	$2,450	$1.26	16d	1	0.63mi
36502 W San Ildefanso Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2104	$2,400	$1.14	0d	1	0.63mi
36419 W San Ildefanso Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1849	$1,795	$0.97	16d	1	0.65mi
35579 W San Capistrano Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	7d	1	0.68mi
35480 W San Capistrano Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,685	$1.20	0d	1	0.69mi
35963 W San Alvarez Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1922	$1,995	$1.04	26d	1	0.70mi
35396 W San Capistrano Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	45d	1	0.73mi
36085 W San Sisto Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1605	$2,500	$1.56	0d	1	0.75mi
35420 W San Alvarez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,800	$1.15	26d	1	0.81mi
35408 W San Alvarez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,599	$1.05	26d	1	0.82mi
18389 N Conquistador Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	7d	1	0.83mi
18099 N Los Gabrieles Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	45d	1	0.83mi
35349 W San Alvarez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,600	$1.02	4d	1	0.86mi
35349 W San Alvarez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,600	$1.02	0d	1	0.86mi
35423 W San Sisto Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,950	$1.24	6d	1	0.88mi
37088 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1516	$1,735	$1.14	45d	1	1.01mi
37144 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1516	$1,669	$1.10	0d	1	1.03mi
37144 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1516	$1,839	$1.21	25d	1	1.03mi
37154 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2223	$1,695	$0.76	26d	1	1.03mi
17589 N Del Mar Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,895	$1.61	46d	1	1.07mi
17936 N Lettere Cir Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2012	$1,800	$0.89	7d	1	1.18mi
36605 W Mondragone Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,595	$1.36	12d	1	1.18mi
36355 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,050	$1.45	3d	1	1.21mi
36355 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,050	$1.45	0d	1	1.21mi
37392 W Capri Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,695	$0.96	16d	1	1.27mi
37392 W Capri Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,695	$0.96	18d	1	1.27mi
36837 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,595	$1.25	0d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $284,900 Pending 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $284,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 80 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $284,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 79 DOM
4. 2026-05-18
   price $284,900 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   ''PRICE ADJUSTMENT''Charming and updated single-story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,504 sq ft of thoughtfully refreshed living space. Interior upgrades include fresh paint throughout the home and garage, commercial-grade laminate flooring and tile with no carpet, and updated ceiling fans, light fixtures, and LED lighting. There are nice improvements, including a newer A/C unit, a new garage door, and recently cleaned air ducts for enhanced comfort. Step outside to a beautifully landscaped backyard with lush grass, plus dual gates and a convenient access door from the garage for added versatility, making for a secluded retreat to BBQ and entertain. Put this one on your list!

5. 2026-04-27
   price $299,899 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   ''PRICE ADJUSTMENT''Charming and updated single-story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,504 sq ft of thoughtfully refreshed living space. Interior upgrades include fresh paint throughout the home and garage, commercial-grade laminate flooring and tile with no carpet, and updated ceiling fans, light fixtures, and LED lighting. There are nice improvements, including a newer A/C unit, a new garage door, and recently cleaned air ducts for enhanced comfort. Step outside to a beautifully landscaped backyard with lush grass, plus dual gates and a convenient access door from the garage for added versatility, making for a secluded retreat to BBQ and entertain. Put this one on your list!

6. 2026-04-10
   price $299,900 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   ''PRICE ADJUSTMENT''Charming and updated single-story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,504 sq ft of thoughtfully refreshed living space. Interior upgrades include fresh paint throughout the home and garage, commercial-grade laminate flooring and tile with no carpet, and updated ceiling fans, light fixtures, and LED lighting. There are nice improvements, including a newer A/C unit, a new garage door, and recently cleaned air ducts for enhanced comfort. Step outside to a beautifully landscaped backyard with lush grass, plus dual gates and a convenient access door from the garage for added versatility, making for a secluded retreat to BBQ and entertain. Put this one on your list!

7. 2026-03-13
   listed $329,000 Active 693-char remark

   Show marketing remark (693 chars)

   ''PRICE ADJUSTMENT''Charming and updated single-story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,504 sq ft of thoughtfully refreshed living space. Interior upgrades include fresh paint throughout the home and garage, commercial-grade laminate flooring and tile with no carpet, and updated ceiling fans, light fixtures, and LED lighting. There are nice improvements, including a newer A/C unit, a new garage door, and recently cleaned air ducts for enhanced comfort. Step outside to a beautifully landscaped backyard with lush grass, plus dual gates and a convenient access door from the garage for added versatility, making for a secluded retreat to BBQ and entertain. Put this one on your list!

8. 2018-06-08
   soldstatus $152,754
9. 2004-06-30
   soldstatus $3,516,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,722 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,880 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$159/yr (+$13/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$1,722
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$9,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,184
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-91.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $284,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $299,899 ARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $299,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $329,000 ARMLS
• 2018-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $152,754 Public Records
• 2004-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $3,516,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,722 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.