2859 Stafford Dr · Markham, IL 60428

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1957 Est $155k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Honey stop the car, this is the ONE! You will love this updated ranch style home. Step inside to this sun drenched family room with floor to ceiling shiplap detail wall w/electric fireplace and crown molding detail. Beautiful hardwood floors that flow through your home. Check out this kitchen, shaker cabinets, SS appliances, granite countertops and subway tile backsplash. A fresh coat of paint and all new light fixtures with black accessories make it pop. 3 generous sized bedrooms and an updated bathroom to round off the main floor. Out back you have a fenced in backyard with concrete patio. Come check it out.

Key facts

• New floors
• Updated ranch
• Ample closet space

Tags

• UPDATED RANCH
• NEW FLOORS
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• GENEROUS BEDROOMS
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#186 in IL, #3,539 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, employment D.
• Bremen Chsd 228 (suburban): math 15% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #468 of 620 in IL (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 7645% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.43%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,012
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16309 Plymouth Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,051 (-3%)	2mo	$170,000	$162	84
2926 Sussex Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,048 (-3%)	1mo	$129,900	$124	82
16165 Oxford Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,061 (-2%)	3mo	$154,900	$146	80
3027 Wilshire Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-5%)	3mo	$155,000	$151	79
16364 California Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,133 (+4%)	5mo	$160,000	$141	78
16155 Kedzie Pkwy	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,048 (-3%)	1mo	$215,000	$205	76
16358 Plymouth Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	993 (-8%)	2mo	$138,999	$140	75
2956 Sherwood Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,048 (-3%)	5mo	$149,900	$143	74
3048 Sherwood Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,048 (-3%)	2mo	$161,000	$154	70
16614 Plymouth Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,117 (+3%)	4mo	$75,000	$67	68
16501 Oxford Dr S	0.36mi	3/1.0	975 (-10%)	3mo	$105,000	$108	64
16516 Turner Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+11%)	2mo	$70,000	$58	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $115,485
• Equity at exit: $139,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.29×
• Total profit: $316,198
• Equity at exit: $300,937

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60428

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,334 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,778/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,719

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16752 Artesian Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	867	$2,500	$2.88	1d	1	0.82mi
16751 Crane Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	1d	1	1.02mi
16901 Orchard Ridge Ave Hazel Crest, IL	4.0	2.0	1406	$2,700	$1.92	1d	1	1.05mi
2308 170th St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	2.0	1020	$2,400	$2.35	1d	1	1.15mi
2173 171st St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1159	$2,350	$2.03	1d	1	1.38mi
2107 171st St Unit 2107 Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1158	$2,300	$1.99	1d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on marketlisting id $154,900 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Temporarily No Showings 73 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    historical $2,000
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $2,000
16. 2026-03-20
    historical $2,100
17. 2026-03-19
    listed $154,900 Active
18. 2026-03-19
    historical
19. 2026-02-28
    listed $2,100
20. 2026-02-27
    status Active
21. 2026-02-05
    historical $2,100
22. 2026-02-05
    historical Contingent - No Showings
23. 2026-01-22
    listed $2,100
24. 2026-01-21
    status Active
25. 2025-12-30
    historical Contingent - No Showings
26. 2025-12-30
    historical $2,100
27. 2025-12-15
    listed Active
28. 2025-12-04
    listed $2,100
29. 2025-10-09
    historical $2,200
30. 2025-09-12
    listed $2,200
31. 2023-07-26
    historical $1,900
32. 2023-07-22
    listed $1,900
33. 2023-06-27
    soldstatus $150,000
34. 2023-06-09
    soldstatus $149,900 Closed 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Honey stop the car, this is the ONE! You will love this updated ranch style home. Step inside to this sun drenched family room with floor to ceiling shiplap detail wall w/electric fireplace and crown molding detail. Beautiful hardwood floors that flow through your home. Check out this kitchen, shaker cabinets, SS appliances, granite countertops and subway tile backsplash. A fresh coat of paint and all new light fixtures with black accessories make it pop. 3 generous sized bedrooms and an updated bathroom to round off the main floor. Out back you have a fenced in backyard with concrete patio. Come check it out.

35. 2023-05-08
    historical Contingent - No Showings 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Honey stop the car, this is the ONE! You will love this updated ranch style home. Step inside to this sun drenched family room with floor to ceiling shiplap detail wall w/electric fireplace and crown molding detail. Beautiful hardwood floors that flow through your home. Check out this kitchen, shaker cabinets, SS appliances, granite countertops and subway tile backsplash. A fresh coat of paint and all new light fixtures with black accessories make it pop. 3 generous sized bedrooms and an updated bathroom to round off the main floor. Out back you have a fenced in backyard with concrete patio. Come check it out.

36. 2023-05-04
    listed $149,900 Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Honey stop the car, this is the ONE! You will love this updated ranch style home. Step inside to this sun drenched family room with floor to ceiling shiplap detail wall w/electric fireplace and crown molding detail. Beautiful hardwood floors that flow through your home. Check out this kitchen, shaker cabinets, SS appliances, granite countertops and subway tile backsplash. A fresh coat of paint and all new light fixtures with black accessories make it pop. 3 generous sized bedrooms and an updated bathroom to round off the main floor. Out back you have a fenced in backyard with concrete patio. Come check it out.

37. 2017-08-14
    soldstatus $42,000 Closed Sale
38. 2017-06-23
    status Contingent (Do Not Show)
39. 2017-06-21
    listed $44,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,778 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,778 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$5,778
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,240
• − Management: −$2,240
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $3,789
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$909
• After-tax cash flow: $4,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bremen Chsd 228
• NCES district ID: 1707050
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 15.32/100
• National rank: #9327
• State rank: #468 of 620 in IL

Livability — Markham

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #3539

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Markham, IL
• City population: 10,980
• Population (ZIP): 10,980

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 17% White 11% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.63%
• Current HPI: 302.333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-95.5% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Rental Removed $2,000 MRED
• 2026-03-20 Listed for Rent $2,000 MRED
• 2026-03-20 Rental Removed $2,100 MRED
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $154,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Listed for Rent $2,100 MRED
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Rental Removed $2,100 MRED
• 2026-02-05 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Listed for Rent $2,100 MRED
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Rental Removed $2,100 MRED
• 2025-12-15 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listed for Rent $2,100 MRED
• 2025-10-09 Rental Removed $2,200 MRED
• 2025-09-12 Listed for Rent $2,200 MRED
• 2023-07-26 Rental Removed $1,900 MRED
• 2023-07-22 Listed for Rent $1,900 MRED
• 2023-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-09 Sold (MLS) $149,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-08 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-04 Listed $149,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-14 Sold (MLS) $42,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-23 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-21 Listed $44,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,778 · +37.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.