25804 Cockleshell Dr #312 · Bonita Springs, FL 34135

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 975 sqft · Condo public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1979 $567/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a slice of the good life at Bonita Pines Club! Top floor (3rd level) Condominium Home has two bedrooms, two baths, one carport, elevator access and an exceptional view right outside the screened in lanai! New interior paint & ceiling fans 2025, vinyl flooring throughout, updated kitchen, and Quartz countertops in 2022. A/C installed in 2020. Bonita Pines Club offers their residence a peaceful community with Club House, swimming pool, pickleball, tennis courts, basketball, barbecue areas, mature landscape and space to just breath. Downtown Bonita Springs is just a short distance away. You will be located near a variety of shops, restaurants, and entertainment. RSW is less t

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Pickleball
• Swimming pool

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SWIMMING POOL
• PICKLEBALL
• TENNIS COURTS
• BASKETBALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (9.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.17%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-41,141
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-69,832
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34135

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 843
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,370/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$567
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,656

Max offer price $158,555

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6	-5% $-44	+0% $-93	+5% $-143	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-193	+0% $-93	+5% $7	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $-5	-0.5pp $-49	base $-93	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25806 Cockleshell Dr #314 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,800	$1.85	25d	1	0.04mi
10325 Tarrah Ln Unit 1073517P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	818	$4,608	$5.63	4d	1	0.23mi
25480 Cockleshell Dr #1005 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.5	1119	$4,600	$4.11	25d	1	0.27mi
10101 Sandy Hollow Ln #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.5	808	$1,645	$2.04	25d	1	0.38mi
10041 Maddox Ln #203 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$5,000	$4.62	25d	1	0.80mi
26239 Bonita Fairways Cir Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,500	$2.30	25d	1	0.98mi
10710 Rosemary Dr #712 Bonita Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	984	$1,750	$1.78	25d	1	1.04mi
9250 Highland Woods Blvd #2308 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	5d	1	1.07mi
9250 Highland Woods Blvd #2308 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	25d	1	1.07mi
9200 Highland Woods Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1083	$4,050	$3.74	18d	3	1.11mi
26589-610 Rosewood Pointe Dr Unit A 301 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	986	$3,500	$3.55	25d	1	1.15mi
9450 Highland Woods Blvd #6203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$6,000	$5.45	16d	1	1.16mi
26600 Rosewood Pointe Dr Unit B-101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	983	$2,200	$2.24	5d	1	1.18mi
26600 Rosewood Pointe Dr Unit 102 Bonita Springs, FL	1.0	2.0	833	$2,900	$3.48	5d	1	1.18mi
8940 Colonnades Ct E Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1013	$2,575	$2.54	12d	3	1.18mi
8940 Colonnades Ct E Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1013	$2,675	$2.64	25d	2	1.18mi
8930 Colonnades Ct E #625 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1013	$3,000	$2.96	12d	1	1.19mi
8930 Colonnades Ct E Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1013	$2,325	$2.30	18d	2	1.19mi
8920 Colonnades Ct E #514 Bonita Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	713	$1,500	$2.10	25d	1	1.22mi
27020 Williams Rd #5 Bonita Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	595	$1,700	$2.86	25d	1	1.25mi
8870 Colonnades Ct W #337 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	997	$3,100	$3.11	5d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $567 · $6,804/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   price $175,000
3. 2026-03-03
   status Active
4. 2026-02-26
   status Pending With Contingencies
5. 2026-02-05
   price $189,000
6. 2026-01-24
   price $209,000
7. 2025-11-27
   listed $229,000 Active
8. 2017-05-18
   soldstatus $120,000
9. 1995-06-19
   soldstatus $62,000
10. 1981-02-01
    soldstatus $58,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,370
• − Insurance: −$5,994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,437
• − Management: −$2,437
• − HOA: −$6,804
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$834
• After-tax cash flow: $-283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonita Springs, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,252
• Household income: $91,380
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 976.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.86%
• Current HPI: 243.4153
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+197.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — BEARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $175,000 BEARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — BEARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Pending — BEARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $189,000 BEARMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $209,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-11-27 Listed $229,000 BEARMLS
• 2017-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1981-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,370 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.