5854 E Main St · Bailey, NC 27807

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1953 0.50 ac lot Est $125k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity in Bailey! Situated on approximately 0.52 acres, this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers plenty of potential for an investor looking to add to their portfolio or take on their next project. Conveniently located in the heart of Bailey with easy access to nearby towns, shopping, and major roadways. Whether you're looking for a rental property, renovation project, or long term investment, this property is worth a look. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 5 days

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 0.52 ACRES
• EASY ACCESS TO NEARBY TOWNS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS
• PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS-IS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.5 acres (Frontage listed as 150')
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking; see remarks for additional parking details
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One-level / one story; Entry level is 1; Zoning: D-D
• Construction: Construction materials: see remarks; Foundation details: see remarks; Built year not provided
• Exterior features: Front porch; No fencing; Roof details: see remarks; Has a view; Lot features: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Total of 3 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: No flooring information provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present (type listed as Other); Cooling present (type listed as Other)
• Interior features: See remarks for additional interior details
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliance details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($432/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (2.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.2% in Bailey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#171 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #155 of 178 in NC (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bailey Elementary (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 538 students, 75% FRL); Southern Nash Middle (math 20% / reading 35%, grade F, #368 of 475 statewide, top 78%, 798 students, 69% FRL); Southern Nash High (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #409 of 535 statewide, top 77%, 1,070 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 500 units permitted in Nash County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nash County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,988 (2.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.88%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,280
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5889 Deans St	0.04mi	2/1.0	882 (+2%)	13mo	$207,000	$235	84
6217 Deans St	0.35mi	2/1.0	896 (+4%)	11mo	$130,000	$145	69
6305 Vance St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	932 (+8%)	1mo	$110,000	$118	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-12,239
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-7,559
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27807

• Home prices YoY: -4.5%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $880 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $834

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $61	+0% $36	+5% $11	+10% $-15
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $1	+0% $36	+5% $71	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $59	base $36	+0.5pp $13	+1.0pp $-11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $89,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 471-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $89,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$845
• − Management: −$845
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$1,034
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$248
• After-tax cash flow: $680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nash-Rocky Mount Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703270
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,553
• Composite: 22.04/100
• National rank: #8198
• State rank: #155 of 178 in NC

Livability — Bailey

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #9089

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bailey, NC
• Population (ZIP): 5,951

Population outlook (Nash County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 91,107 people
• By 2030: 89,193 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 84,959 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,517 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 72,941 · -19.9%
• By 2100: 63,602 · -30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 14% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nash

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+0.2 2012: D+0.9 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.29%
• Current HPI: 197.5355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+63.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $89,900 LPRMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $89,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,005 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.