362 Saint Johns Rd · Cedar Creek, TX 78616

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Other · 159 Days on market

Built 2012 1.17 ac lot $246/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.17 acre lot with a 2012 built 3 bedroom, 2 bath DWMH. Full length covered back porch with wrought iron railing. Nice scattered trees, fenced perimeter, located in northeastern Caldwell County. The primary suite has a double vanity, separate shower and garden tub. Vinyl plank floors throughout, no carpet. Lockhart ISD, easy access to FM 812. Approximately 30-35 min drive to ABIA & TESLA.

Key facts

• Fenced perimeter
• Double vanity
• Separate shower

Tags

• COVERED BACK PORCH
• FENCED PERIMETER
• DOUBLE VANITY
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• GARDEN TUB
• VINYL PLANK FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.2% in Cedar Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,155 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $597,174
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -53.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $138,904
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $417,285
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78616

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,373/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,115

Max offer price $245,167

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-91	+0% $-169	+5% $-247	+10% $-325
Rent	-10% $-319	-5% $-244	+0% $-169	+5% $-94	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-99	base $-169	+0.5pp $-240	+1.0pp $-313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $275,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    1.17 acre lot with a 2012 built 3 bedroom, 2 bath DWMH. Full length covered back porch with wrought iron railing. Nice scattered trees, fenced perimeter, located in northeastern Caldwell County. The primary suite has a double vanity, separate shower and garden tub. Vinyl plank floors throughout, no carpet. Lockhart ISD, easy access to FM 812. Approximately 30-35 min drive to ABIA & TESLA.

16. 2025-12-08
    listed $300,000 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    1.17 acre lot with a 2012 built 3 bedroom, 2 bath DWMH. Full length covered back porch with wrought iron railing. Nice scattered trees, fenced perimeter, located in northeastern Caldwell County. The primary suite has a double vanity, separate shower and garden tub. Vinyl plank floors throughout, no carpet. Lockhart ISD, easy access to FM 812. Approximately 30-35 min drive to ABIA & TESLA.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,373 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,660/yr (+$305/mo · 266.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,373
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,676
• After-tax cash flow: $-350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cedar Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 19,830
• Population (ZIP): 10,008

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 48% White 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Current HPI: 308.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $275,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $300,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,373 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.