89 Kasoag Lake Rd · Altmar, NY 13302

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1990 2.57 ac lot $97/sqft · 111% above area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Direct access to ATV & snowmobile trails! Over 2.5 Acres w/ driveway, drilled well (162 Feet deep), 1,000-gallon concrete tank w/ leach field located behind mobile home. 1990 mobile home resides on poured pad! "Averdi" style unit will remain. Park and Play -- Waiting for you!!

Key facts

• Poured pad
• Leach field
• Concrete tank

Tags

• DIRECT ACCESS TO ATV TRAILS
• 2.5 ACRES
• DRILLED WELL
• CONCRETE TANK
• LEACH FIELD
• POURED PAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.2% in Altmar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,077 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #573 of 590 in NY (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.25%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $45,000
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 111.11%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $70,448
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.25×
• Total profit: $192,763
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13302

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,193/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $807

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $95,000 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Direct access to ATV & snowmobile trails! Over 2.5 Acres w/ driveway, drilled well (162 Feet deep), 1,000-gallon concrete tank w/ leach field located behind mobile home. 1990 mobile home resides on poured pad! "Averdi" style unit will remain. Park and Play -- Waiting for you!!

16. 2026-03-09
    listed $125,000 Active 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Direct access to ATV & snowmobile trails! Over 2.5 Acres w/ driveway, drilled well (162 Feet deep), 1,000-gallon concrete tank w/ leach field located behind mobile home. 1990 mobile home resides on poured pad! "Averdi" style unit will remain. Park and Play -- Waiting for you!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,193 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,399 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$206/yr (+$17/mo · 17.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,193
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,131
• − Management: −$1,131
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$510
• After-tax cash flow: $3,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602820
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,728
• Composite: 27.01/100
• National rank: #7063
• State rank: #573 of 590 in NY

Livability — Altmar

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1077
• US rank: #21658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,403

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Italian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.01%
• Current HPI: 423.7974
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $95,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $125,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,193 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.