661 Nubbin Ridge Rd #38 · Lakeview, AR 72642

$45,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1984 $48/sqft · 50% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained & move-in ready, this 1984 Wins 2-bed, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfort, recent updates & a great location near the water. Improvements include newer flooring and blinds, a new water heater & an approximately 5-year-old HVAC system. A PermaMetal roof with a lifetime warranty adds long-term value. Both bedrooms feature built-in dressers for efficient storage. The home is skirted, underpinned & tied down, and includes a carport, covered deck and 10' x 8' storage shed. Located just minutes from a public boat launch, 10 minutes from the Lakeview marina on Bull Shoals Lake & approximately 6 miles from the White River, this property provides easy access to boating, fishing, & outdoor recreation while remaining convenient to town. A solid option for full-time living or a low-maintenance getaway close to the lake.

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• New water heater
• Carport

Tags

• NEWER FLOORING
• NEW WATER HEATER
• HVAC SYSTEM
• PERMAMETAL ROOF
• BUILT-IN DRESSERS
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($842 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.6% in Lakeview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#88 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mountain Home School District (town): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #40 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Baxter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Baxter County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $45k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $40,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.76%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $29,950
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: 50.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
661 - #51 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	938 (0%)	3mo	$30,000	$32	98
661 Nubbin Ridge Rd Lot 14	0.00mi	2/1.5	924 (-2%)	0mo	$29,900	$32	95
661 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.00mi	2/1.5	924 (-2%)	0mo	$29,900	$32	95
661- #52 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	952 (+2%)	9mo	$26,500	$28	90
661 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.00mi	2/1.5	893 (-5%)	22mo	$25,500	$29	72
661- #17 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+8%)	7mo	$55,000	$55	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $47,097
• Equity at exit: $40,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.60×
• Total profit: $120,965
• Equity at exit: $87,425

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72642

• Home prices YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $386	-5% $370	+0% $354	+5% $339	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $288	-5% $321	+0% $354	+5% $388	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $377	-0.5pp $366	base $354	+0.5pp $343	+1.0pp $331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $45,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $49,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-03-12
    price $49,900 876-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Well-maintained and move-in ready, this 1984 Wins 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfort, recent updates, and a great location near the water. Improvements include newer flooring and blinds, a new water heater, and an approximately 5-year-old HVAC system. A PermaMetal roof with a lifetime warranty adds long-term value. Both bedrooms feature built-in dressers for efficient storage. The home is skirted, underpinned, and tied down, and includes a carport, covered deck, and 10' x 8' storage shed. Located just minutes from a public boat launch, 10 minutes from the Lakeview marina on Bull Shoals Lake and approximately 6 miles from the White River, this property provides easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation while remaining convenient to town. A solid option for full-time living or a low-maintenance getaway close to the lake.

19. 2026-03-12
    price $49,900 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Well-maintained and move-in ready, this 1984 Wins 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfort, recent updates, and a great location near the water. Improvements include newer flooring and blinds, a new water heater, and an approximately 5-year-old HVAC system. A PermaMetal roof with a lifetime warranty adds long-term value. Both bedrooms feature built-in dressers for efficient storage. The home is skirted, underpinned, and tied down, and includes a carport, covered deck, and 10' x 8' storage shed. Located just minutes from a public boat launch, 10 minutes from the Lakeview marina on Bull Shoals Lake and approximately 6 miles from the White River, this property provides easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation while remaining convenient to town. A solid option for full-time living or a low-maintenance getaway close to the lake.

20. 2026-02-25
    listed $51,500 Active 876-char remark

    Show marketing remark (876 chars)

    Well-maintained & move-in ready, this 1984 Wins 2-bed, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfort, recent updates & a great location near the water. Improvements include newer flooring and blinds, a new water heater & an approximately 5-year-old HVAC system. A PermaMetal roof with a lifetime warranty adds long-term value. Both bedrooms feature built-in dressers for efficient storage. The home is skirted, underpinned & tied down, and includes a carport, covered deck and 10' x 8' storage shed. Located just minutes from a public boat launch, 10 minutes from the Lakeview marina on Bull Shoals Lake & approximately 6 miles from the White River, this property provides easy access to boating, fishing, & outdoor recreation while remaining convenient to town. A solid option for full-time living or a low-maintenance getaway close to the lake.

21. 2026-02-19
    listed $51,500 Active 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Well-maintained and move-in ready, this 1984 Wins 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfort, recent updates, and a great location near the water. Improvements include newer flooring and blinds, a new water heater, and an approximately 5-year-old HVAC system. A PermaMetal roof with a lifetime warranty adds long-term value. Both bedrooms feature built-in dressers for efficient storage. The home is skirted, underpinned, and tied down, and includes a carport, covered deck, and 10' x 8' storage shed. Located just minutes from a public boat launch, 10 minutes from the Lakeview marina on Bull Shoals Lake and approximately 6 miles from the White River, this property provides easy access to boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation while remaining convenient to town. A solid option for full-time living or a low-maintenance getaway close to the lake.

22. 2008-10-28
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$809
• − Management: −$809
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$903
• After-tax cash flow: $3,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Home School District
• NCES district ID: 0500043
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,966
• Composite: 37.4/100
• National rank: #4424
• State rank: #40 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lakeview

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #9722

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,724
• Population (ZIP): 1,724

Population outlook (Baxter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,886 people
• By 2030: 39,226 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 37,810 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 36,287 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 32,965 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 28,002 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baxter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 20.7% · R 77.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+53.3 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+44.0 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.66%
• Current HPI: 237.0425
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+126.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $49,900 NWARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $49,900 MHMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $51,500 NWARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $51,500 MHMLS
• 2008-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-22.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $3 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.