650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #167 · San Marcos, CA 92078

$349,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 1976 3,999 sqft lot Est $280k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Top of the line rental park. Great 2BR/2BA home. New carpet. Great condition. Close to all shopping and banking. Buyer to verify sf prior to COE. Owner looking for quick escrow.

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• Plantation shutters
• Plank vinyl flooring

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PLANK VINYL FLOORING
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area per public records; Lot size estimated
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community dog park; Land lease of $630

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (24' x 56') remains on property; Single-story; Located in a senior community; Located in Palomar Estates East
• Construction: Mobile/manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Association pool; Level lot with street access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Front door entry; Main floor primary bedroom; All bedrooms on ground floor
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in its own room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (2.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 232 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $349k implies a 482% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $340,765 (2.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,552
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #312	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$267,000	$199	100
650 S Rancho Santa Fe. Rd #294	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$228,500	$170	98
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #54	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$260,000	$208	86
3535 Linda Vista Dr #50	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	1mo	$358,000	$262	78
3535 Linda Vista Dr #321	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$205	76
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #425	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$320,000	$238	76
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #118	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,153 (-14%)	2mo	$213,000	$185	75
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #374	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$385,000	$267	70
3535 Linda Vista Dr Spc 29	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	69
2010 W San Marcos Blvd #54	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$684,999	$510	69
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #191	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	1mo	$310,000	$208	64
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #437	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+14%)	2mo	$475,000	$310	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-47,508
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-52,628
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92078

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,408 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,235/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,053

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
830 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	826	$3,150	$3.81	2d	5	0.27mi
3919 Las Cruces Ave San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	4d	1	0.33mi
1643 Rue de Valle San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1086	$3,222	$2.97	17d	1	0.38mi
910 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd Unit 1 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,900	$3.05	24d	1	0.38mi
2010 W San Marcos Blvd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,000	$3.11	43d	1	0.42mi
603 Beverly Pl San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1068	$3,150	$2.95	43d	1	0.42mi
3815 La Rosa Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$3,700	$3.65	12d	1	0.56mi
658 Las Flores Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0	1284	$3,650	$2.84	43d	1	0.58mi
3834 La Rosa Dr Unit A San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	1014	$4,200	$4.14	43d	1	0.59mi
1029 Martina Ct San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,995	$2.50	43d	1	0.65mi
1560 Circa Del Lago Unit D302 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1030	$4,500	$4.37	43d	1	0.77mi
1560 Circa Del Lago Unit D304 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1030	$4,500	$4.37	24d	1	0.77mi
1241 W San Marcos Blvd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	883	$2,400	$2.72	43d	1	0.86mi
1635 Creek St San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0	1047	$3,450	$3.29	14d	3	0.90mi
1510 Calle Devanar San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1222	$3,595	$2.94	4d	1	1.16mi
1604 Via Inspirar San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1222	$3,850	$3.15	43d	1	1.17mi
420 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	896	$2,445	$2.73	2d	3	1.40mi
1257 Armorlite Dr San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	1189	$4,330	$3.64	1d	24	1.41mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $349,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $369,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,235
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,271
• − Management: −$3,271
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$2,333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$560
• After-tax cash flow: $3,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634880
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,752
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #3093
• State rank: #249 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3074

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 100,940
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 53,605
• Household income: $120,268
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1594.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -351.55%
• Current HPI: 358.3294
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+373.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $369,000 CRMLS
• 2008-01-17 Sold (MLS) $60,000 CRMLS
• 2007-10-19 Listed $60,000 CRMLS
• 2007-05-23 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-05-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-01-19 Listed $78,000 SDMLS
• 2007-01-19 Listed $78,000 CRMLS