614 Morales · El Cenizo, TX 78046

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 495 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1799 10,500 sqft lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unlock the potential of this unique property! This property features two separate homes in one lot!! Perfect for investors or homeowners looking to generate rental income. Property also includes two spacious storage rooms in the back, offering plenty of room for any additional equipment.

Key facts

• Two separate homes
• 0.24 acre lot
• Listed 64 days

Tags

• TWO SEPARATE HOMES
• SPACIOUS STORAGE ROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($764/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,144 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• United ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #568 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 482 active listings in the ZIP; 1,448 units permitted in Webb County in 2024 (245 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Webb County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1799 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,171 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1799 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.18%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-16,202
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,900
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78046

• Home prices YoY: -13.0%
• Active inventory: 482
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,473/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,051

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $145,000 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Unlock the potential of this unique property! This property features two separate homes in one lot!! Perfect for investors or homeowners looking to generate rental income. Property also includes two spacious storage rooms in the back, offering plenty of room for any additional equipment.

18. 2026-04-14
    listed $160,000 Active 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Unlock the potential of this unique property! This property features two separate homes in one lot!! Perfect for investors or homeowners looking to generate rental income. Property also includes two spacious storage rooms in the back, offering plenty of room for any additional equipment.

19. 2000-04-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,473 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$814/yr (+$68/mo · 55.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,473
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$319
• After-tax cash flow: $1,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: United ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843650
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,780
• Composite: 28.02/100
• National rank: #6848
• State rank: #568 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Cenizo

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1144
• US rank: #20153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cenizo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,965

Population outlook (Webb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 301,387 people
• By 2030: 316,307 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 345,636 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 370,647 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 413,907 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 416,458 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 53% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 92%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 9% English-only · Spanish 91%

Political lean MEDSL · Webb

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.5% · R 50.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: 43.4pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+23.3 2016: D+51.6 2012: D+54.0 2008: D+43.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.36%
• Current HPI: 196.8153
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $145,000 LAOR
• 2026-04-14 Listed $160,000 LAOR
• 2000-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,473 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.