209 Old Ironsides Rd · Newport, NC
Flood risk 8/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.97%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $906 – $1,684
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 103°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 21 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Schools +5.9/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$525,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
3BR/2BA modular home in Newport featuring an open-concept layout and durable LVP flooring throughout. Bright living area flows into a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry. Spacious primary suite plus two additional bedrooms for guests or office space. Includes a two-story stick-built workshop with two 9-ft garage doors--perfect for storage, hobbies, or business use. Large yard with room to relax or entertain. Conveniently located near beaches, boating, shopping, and dining. Great opportunity for primary residence, vacation home, or investment!
Key facts
- Functional kitchen
- Ample cabinetry
- Durable lvp flooring
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($70k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $525k).
- Recommended offer: $462k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 28.3% in Newport — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 63/100 on livability (#385 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Beaufort Elementary (math 57% / reading 56%, grade C+, #280 of 1,410 statewide, top 20%, 378 students, 99% FRL); Beaufort Middle (math 42% / reading 55%, grade C-, #127 of 475 statewide, top 28%, 258 students, 99% FRL); East Carteret High (math 82% / reading 62%, grade B+, #107 of 535 statewide, top 21%, 530 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 39% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 321 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $11,916/mo this rent would consume 204% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.27% ✓
- Cap rate
- 20.52%
- Cash-on-cash
- 50.81%
- DSCR
- 3.26
- GRM
- 3.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $708,440
- List price
- $525,000
- Delta
- -25.89%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 9 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 335 Country Club Ln | 0.22mi | 3/3.0 | 2,292 (-14%) | 3mo | $319,000 | $139 | 60 |
| 256 Gatsey Ln | 0.82mi | 4/3.5 (+1) | 2,605 (-2%) | 7mo | $749,900 | $288 | 45 |
| 108 Blue Heron Ct | 1.43mi | 3/2.5 | 2,320 (-13%) | 1mo | $775,000 | $334 | 41 |
| 364 Old Stanton Rd Slip A18 | 0.80mi | 3/3.0 | 2,426 (-9%) | 11mo | $1,040,000 | $429 | 37 |
| 1074 Sea Gate Dr | 0.97mi | 3/2.0 | 2,101 (-21%) | 6mo | $750,000 | $357 | 35 |
| 282 Old Stanton Rd | 1.30mi | 3/3.5 | 3,010 (+13%) | 30mo | $762,500 | $253 | 17 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 44.7%
- Equity multiple
- 2.93×
- Total profit
- $284,328
- Equity at exit
- $78,279
- IRR
- 50.6%
- Equity multiple
- 5.92×
- Total profit
- $723,729
- Equity at exit
- $45,392
Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State North Carolina
- 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 2 active
- Months of supply
- 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $799,500 ($289/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 20 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- -7.7% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 28570
- Home prices YoY
- -16.2%
- Active inventory
- 321
- Price-to-rent
- 3.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $11,916 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,753
- Tax from tax record
- −$164 /mo · $1,966/yr
- Insurance
- −$219
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$54
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$2,502
- Net cashflow
- $5,797
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $6,094 | -5% $5,946 | +0% $5,797 | +5% $5,649 | +10% $5,500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $4,856 | -5% $5,327 | +0% $5,797 | +5% $6,268 | +10% $6,739 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $6,062 | -0.5pp $5,931 | base $5,797 | +0.5pp $5,661 | +1.0pp $5,523 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $131,250
- Closing costs
- $15,750
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Homeowners association with annual fee ($650)Community poolStreet lightsAssociation amenities include basketball court, boat dock, playground, RV/boat storage
Exterior
- Parking
- 2 total parking spaces2-car garage (detached, unpaved)
- Utilities
- Well waterSeptic tankCable available
- Home design
- Single-family residenceOne level / One storyEntry level: 1
- Construction
- Vinyl siding and frame constructionBlock foundationShingle roofBuilt as a residential single family home
- Exterior features
- GardenDeckFront porchChain link fencing (back yard)Above-ground poolSecond garageWorkshopHas view
Interior
- Kitchen
- RefrigeratorIce makerDishwasherElectric range
- Bedrooms
- Total rooms: 8
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Propane heatingCentral airAttic fan
- Interior features
- Walk-in closet(s)Kitchen islandCeiling fan(s)Window coveringsUnfurnished
- Laundry & utility
- Washer hookupLaundry roomWasher includedGas water heater
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-18days on market $525,000 Active 177 DOM
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2026-09-17days on market $525,000 Active 176 DOM
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2026-09-16days on market $525,000 Active 175 DOM
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2026-09-15days on market $525,000 Active 174 DOM
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2026-09-14days on market $525,000 Active 173 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $525,000 Active 172 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $525,000 Active 171 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $525,000 Active 170 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $525,000 Active 164 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $525,000 Active 163 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $525,000 Active 162 DOM
-
2026-09-02days on market $525,000 Active 161 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $525,000 Active 158 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $525,000 Active 157 DOM
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2026-08-28days on market $525,000 Active 156 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $525,000 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $525,000 Active 154 DOM
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2026-08-25days on market $525,000 Active 153 DOM
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2026-08-24days on market $525,000 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $525,000 Active 151 DOM
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2026-08-22days on market $525,000 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $525,000 Active 149 DOM
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2026-08-20days on market $525,000 Active 148 DOM
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2026-08-19days on market $525,000 Active 147 DOM
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2026-08-18days on market $525,000 Active 146 DOM
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2026-08-17days on market $525,000 Active 145 DOM
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2026-08-16days on market $525,000 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $525,000 Active 143 DOM
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2026-08-14days on market $525,000 Active 142 DOM
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2026-08-13days on market $525,000 Active 141 DOM
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2026-08-12days on market $525,000 Active 140 DOM
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2026-08-11days on market $525,000 Active 139 DOM
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2026-08-10days on market $525,000 Active 138 DOM
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2026-08-09days on market $525,000 Active 137 DOM
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2026-08-08days on market $525,000 Active 136 DOM
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2026-08-07days on market $525,000 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $525,000 Active 134 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $525,000 Active 133 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $525,000 Active 132 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $525,000 Active 131 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $525,000 Active 128 DOM
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2026-07-29days on market $525,000 Active 126 DOM
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2026-07-27days on market $525,000 Active 124 DOM
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2026-07-25days on market $525,000 Active 122 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $525,000 Active 120 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $525,000 Active 119 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $525,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $525,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $525,000 Active 113 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $525,000 Active 112 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,966 · $164/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $4,305 · $359/mo
- Expected delta
- +$2,339/yr (+$195/mo · 119.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $142,990
- − Mortgage interest
- −$29,408
- − Property taxes
- −$1,966
- − Insurance
- −$7,744
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$11,439
- − Management
- −$11,439
- − HOA
- −$648
- − Depreciation
- −$15,273
- Taxable income
- $65,073
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$15,618
- After-tax cash flow
- $53,949/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos
This home is in good condition with a good roof, exterior, and interior. It has a good floor and systems. The property has a good yard and landscaping. The home is move-in ready and has good curb appeal.
Components & finishes AI
Deferred maintenance Est. $2,500–$10,000 screening
- Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear
- Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Landscaping and trimming bushes — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
- Both Landscaping and trimming bushes — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Carteret County Public Schools
- NCES district ID
- 3700630
- Math proficiency
- 59% ▲ 5.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 61% ▲ 2.00%
- Median HH income
- $48,330
- Composite
- 50.92/100
- National rank
- #1786
- State rank
- #31 of 178 in NC
Livability — Newport
- Score
- 63/100
- State rank
- #385
- US rank
- #15094
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Carteret County · 73,443 people
- City population
- 22,197
- Metro
- Morehead City, NC
- Population (ZIP)
- 22,197
- Household income
- $70,229
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 9% of renters
Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 73,443 people
- By 2030
- 75,344 · +2.6%
- By 2040
- 78,142 · +6.4%
- By 2050
- 80,091 · +9.1%
- By 2075
- 86,120 · +17.3%
- By 2100
- 89,408 · +21.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (82%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Carteret
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -53.54%
- Current HPI
- 276.6589
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Morehead City, NC
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 26
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 2 | $213B |
|
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| Retail | 2 | $95B |
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| Industrial Conglomerate | 1 | $38B |
|
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| Metals / Steel | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Utilities | 1 | $30B |
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| Industrial Machinery | 1 | $19B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-03-24 Listed $550,000 Hive MLS
Property tax history
+5.7%/yrLatest (2025): $1,966 · +50.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…