20 Gaston Dr · Lawrenceburg, TN 38468

$178,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,046 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1999 0.80 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming home set on permanent foundation in a highly desirable neighborhood that offers the perfect balance of peaceful, country-like living, out of city limits with convenient access to town. Situated on approximately 0.8 acres, this property provides space, privacy, & endless possibilities. Inside, you'll find a thoughtfully designed open-concept layout featuring generously sized rooms & a functional floor plan. With three bedrooms & two & a half bathrooms, this home offers both comfort & flexibility for everyday living & entertaining. Step outside to enjoy a beautifully spacious yard complete with four pear trees & two cherry tree

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Two cherry trees
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 0.8 ACRES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS YARD
• FOUR PEAR TREES
• TWO CHERRY TREES
• AMPLE ROOM FOR GARDENING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space, 1 covered space, 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured on land residential property; Single-story (one level); Metal roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation; Existing year built (assessor information)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered deck; Back yard fencing; Storage building/other structure; Rolling slope lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level; Primary bedroom with full bath; Two additional bedrooms with extra-large closets
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling (central air)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Crawl space basement; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#105 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lawrence County (rural): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #67 of 139 in TN (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lawrenceburg Public (math 52% / reading 50%, grade C-, #114 of 952 statewide, top 12%, 500 students, 0% FRL); Lawrence Co High School (math 26% / reading 23%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 1,143 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,708 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.33%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $82,873
• Equity at exit: $160,357

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $255,165
• Equity at exit: $345,815

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38468

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$222 /mo · $2,670/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,557

Max offer price $145,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-98	-5% $-160	+0% $-221	+5% $-283	+10% $-344
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-272	+0% $-221	+5% $-171	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-132	-0.5pp $-176	base $-221	+0.5pp $-267	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $178,000 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,000 Active Under Contract 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,000 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,000 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $178,000 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $178,000 Active Under Contract 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $178,000 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $178,000 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $178,000 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2026-04-21
    listed $178,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$2,670
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable loss: −$5,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,401
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County
• NCES district ID: 4702340
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,613
• Composite: 24.2/100
• National rank: #7729
• State rank: #67 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lawrenceburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #10729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,442

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,724 people
• By 2030: 42,627 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 42,144 · -1.4%
• By 2050: 40,800 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 36,643 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 29,193 · -31.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.1) · D 15.1% · R 84.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.3pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -69.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.1 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+61.3 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.65%
• Current HPI: 337.0314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $178,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $212 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.