38 Deer Trail Ct #49 · Safety Harbor, FL 34695

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1978 4,008 sqft lot Est $175k · 21% under $235/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. 2 bedroom 2 bath. Vapor barrier and anchors done in 2014. Master bedroom shower & floor in 2008, roof checked and screws sealed in 2017. Fridge installed 2020, disposal 2025. Great area in dog section allows a cat or a dog up to 25 pounds. This home is in a no flood zone(X). It is being sold furnished so you can move right in if you want a 2nd home as a snowbird or you can use as a principal residence. Maintenance fee is only $235/Month since you actually own the deeded lot included in the price which is 50X80. Maintenance fee includes water, sewer, trash, lawn, clubhouse, heated pool & spa, private roads, shuffleboard, laundry room in c

Key facts

• 4,008 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Association with clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, shuffleboard court and recreation facilities; Association includes pool, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Monthly condo/association fee of $235; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Golf carts allowed; Street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Residential manufactured double-wide; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane and metal roof; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 50 x 80 lot (approx. 0.09 acre)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Private mailbox; Heated in-ground pool; Heated in-ground spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $139,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$175,104) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.7% in Safety Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#8 in FL, #296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $139k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.00%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,104
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Willow Creek Ct #5	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	1mo	$142,500	$127	88
84 Jacaranda Dr #15	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+2%)	1mo	$185,000	$157	86
43 New Fawn Ct #28	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-4%)	17mo	$179,000	$162	76
70 Live Oak Ct #21	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	8mo	$115,000	$105	75
130 Thistle Briar Dr #48	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	7mo	$160,000	$143	74
223 Dolphin Dr N	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-0%)	2mo	$235,000	$204	72
131 Pinewood Ter #8	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	12mo	$190,000	$165	72
138 Thistle Briar Dr #52	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	9mo	$140,000	$133	65
59 Cottagewood Dr #142	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	18mo	$190,000	$152	63
48 Sugar Bear Dr #17	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+13%)	14mo	$165,000	$127	56
143 Forest Ln #14	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	2mo	$150,000	$116	54
245 Pelican Dr N	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-4%)	10mo	$169,900	$154	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $11,456
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $83,073
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34695

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,844/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $429	+0% $389	+5% $350	+10% $311
Rent	-10% $233	-5% $311	+0% $389	+5% $467	+10% $546
Rate	-1.0pp $459	-0.5pp $425	base $389	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36 Magnolia Ct #4 Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	18d	1	0.28mi
2012 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,200	$1.92	25d	1	0.48mi
1924 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,315	$1.82	8d	1	0.55mi
116 Dolphin Dr S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,550	$2.34	13d	1	0.57mi
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	5d	1	0.57mi
1 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	11d	1	0.69mi
86 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	25d	1	0.69mi
211 Countryside Key Blvd Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,899	$1.48	25d	1	0.75mi
1810 Driftwood Cir S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1456	$2,700	$1.85	5d	1	0.77mi
2955 Bay View Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,150	$2.05	25d	1	0.90mi
2941 Shore Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1055	$1,825	$1.73	5d	1	0.97mi
3640 Meriden Ave Unit 3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,575	$1.61	13d	1	1.00mi
3664 Meriden Ave Unit A Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,795	$1.85	25d	1	1.05mi
3455 Countryside Blvd #4 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$2,050	$2.06	5d	1	1.06mi
3001 Landmark Blvd #101 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	25d	1	1.06mi
3149 Huron Ave Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	18d	1	1.09mi
3141 Huron Ave Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,875	$1.72	25d	1	1.11mi
3460 Countryside Blvd #60 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.5	1349	$2,500	$1.85	8d	1	1.16mi
161 Lakeside Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	18d	1	1.20mi
108 Nina Way #3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,695	$1.55	25d	1	1.20mi
107 Windward Pl Unit 107 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$2,000	$2.28	18d	1	1.26mi
414 Meadow Ln Oldsmar, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	25d	1	1.29mi
3590 Magnolia Ridge Cir Unit G Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,695	$1.56	25d	1	1.30mi
46 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$2,000	$1.62	13d	1	1.30mi
47 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	24d	1	1.30mi
114 Meadow Ln #114 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$1,700	$1.93	25d	1	1.32mi
100 Old Village Way Oldsmar, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,475	$1.38	2d	9	1.32mi
3583 Whispering Oaks Ln Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1124	$1,800	$1.60	25d	1	1.34mi
112 Woodlands Ct Unit 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	25d	1	1.35mi
122 Caryl Way Bldg 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,850	$1.69	25d	1	1.36mi
218 Caryl Way Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,740	$1.59	13d	1	1.37mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	3d	1	1.38mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	17d	1	1.38mi
2897 Thaxton Dr #65 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$2,280	$1.64	5d	1	1.44mi
2879 Thaxton Dr #55 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1396	$2,200	$1.58	5d	1	1.44mi
2843 Thaxton Dr #38 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$2,000	$1.42	5d	1	1.45mi
2843 Thaxton Dr #38 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	25d	1	1.46mi
2652 N McMullen Booth Rd Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,698	$1.64	2d	15	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $139,000 Pending 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-04
    price $139,000
14. 2026-03-11
    listed $149,000 Active
15. 2012-07-13
    soldstatus $55,000
16. 2010-06-16
    soldstatus $75,905
17. 1987-05-01
    soldstatus $46,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,844 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,844 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 83% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,844
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $2,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$666
• After-tax cash flow: $4,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Safety Harbor

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Safety Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 18,098
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,098
• Household income: $95,238
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 103.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.72%
• Current HPI: 335.0437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.34%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+198.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $75,905 Public Records
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,844 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.