17 Coventry Rd · Morgantown, MS 39120

$28,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1983 1.17 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom 1 bath mobile home being sold ''AS IS'' condition on 1.17 acres of land.

Key facts

• 1.17 acre lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 120 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $827 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#106 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $197 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $855 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 90% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $25,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 124.42%
• DSCR: 6.54
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
332 Foster Mound Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (-6%)	17mo	$65,000	$45	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $48,096
• Equity at exit: $4,249

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.76×
• Total profit: $109,811
• Equity at exit: $2,464

Cash invested: $7,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$149
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $410/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $827

Break-even live

Break-even rent $247

Max offer price $28,500

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,125
• Closing costs: $855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $28,500 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $28,500 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $28,500 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $28,500 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $28,500 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $28,500 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $28,500 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $28,500 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $28,500 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $28,500 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $28,500 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $28,500 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $28,500 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $28,500 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-02-17
    listed $28,500 Active 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    2 bedroom 1 bath mobile home being sold ''AS IS'' condition on 1.17 acres of land.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 90% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,596
• − Property taxes: −$410
• − Insurance: −$142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$829
• Taxable income: $10,073
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,418
• After-tax cash flow: $7,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Morgantown

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #12538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $28,500 MLSU

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $410 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.