27634 County Route 342 · Fort Drum, NY 13612

$98,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Manufactured · 70 Days on market

Built 2025

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

WOW!  Be the first to own this brand new beautiful doublewide in a Park with an open floor plan and wonderful kitchen island where you can enjoy your favorite beverage with your besties or cook that gourmet meal you've always wanted!  The walk-in pantry has all the room you would ever need for all those kitchen gadgets or just stock away for that "rainy day".  Enjoy the master bathroom with a walk-in shower and walk-in closet! The two remaining bedrooms also have generous closet space.   What great fun it is to sit on your new shaded deck watching the kids in the nearby playground or enjoying a snowball fight in your side yard! This home is centrally located be

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Shaded deck

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SHADED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#996 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, health & safety D.
• Indian River Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #502 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($681 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $92,590 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.95%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $55,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27298 State Route 342	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (-9%)	11mo	$50,000	$44	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $61,881
• Equity at exit: $43,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.44×
• Total profit: $150,116
• Equity at exit: $65,361

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13612

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$123 /mo · $1,478/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $862

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-29
   listed $98,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$1,478
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable income: $8,583
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,060
• After-tax cash flow: $7,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,599
• Composite: 35.25/100
• National rank: #4977
• State rank: #502 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fort Drum

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #996
• US rank: #19459

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,673
• Population (ZIP): 2,940

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Korean 3% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Current HPI: 415.9603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $98,500 UNYREIS