154 W Ostrander Ave · Syracuse, NY 13205

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1904 1.10 ac lot Est $152k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY or MAKE IT YOUR OWN FOR YOUR NEW HOME! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath upstairs; HARDWOOD FLOORS, NEW FURNACE, NEW WIINDOWS. PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD IN "AS IN" CONDITION. SQ. FOOTAGE IS BASED ON PUBLC RECORDS.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Hardwood floors
• New windows

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story home; Existing (resale) property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 35 x 153; Lot about 1.1 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heating present (see remarks)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Combined living and dining area
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $878 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $90k implies a 542% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,551 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.84%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,256
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
183 W Ostrander Ave	0.06mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,519 (+4%)	4mo	$63,000	$41	82
129 W Pleasant Ave	0.17mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,532 (+5%)	4mo	$160,000	$104	74
147 E Matson Ave	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,421 (-3%)	3mo	$80,000	$56	72
118 W Lafayette Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,373 (-6%)	6mo	$153,700	$112	65
133 Hobart Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-15%)	1mo	$145,000	$116	65
504 W Newell St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,545 (+6%)	0mo	$110,000	$71	64
3633 Midland Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,536 (+5%)	2mo	$190,000	$124	55
2331 Midland Ave	0.27mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,664 (+14%)	3mo	$90,000	$54	55
237 Evaleen Ave #39	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,298 (-11%)	5mo	$128,750	$99	52
403 Pacific Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,331 (-9%)	3mo	$130,000	$98	49
604 W Ostrander Ave	0.51mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,320 (-10%)	1mo	$201,000	$152	48
435 Jamesville Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-12%)	3mo	$179,000	$138	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $104,858
• Equity at exit: $80,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.52×
• Total profit: $264,841
• Equity at exit: $174,656

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13205

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,845 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $853/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $878

Break-even live

Break-even rent $734

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $928	-5% $903	+0% $878	+5% $852	+10% $827
Rent	-10% $732	-5% $805	+0% $878	+5% $950	+10% $1,023
Rate	-1.0pp $923	-0.5pp $900	base $878	+0.5pp $854	+1.0pp $831

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
147 E Matson Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	2.5	1421	$2,000	$1.41	22d	1	0.21mi
2331 Midland Ave Syracuse, NY	4.0	1.5	1664	$2,300	$1.38	22d	1	0.27mi
2859 S Salina St Unit 2 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	0.41mi
102 Newbury Hollow Ln Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	14d	1	0.49mi
116 Newbury Hollow Ln Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$1,295	$1.57	14d	7	0.60mi
154 Seeley Ave Syracuse, NY	4.0	1.0	1312	$2,100	$1.60	14d	1	0.82mi
300 Mains Ave Unit Bradford-7 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	14d	1	0.88mi
1330 Midland Ave Syracuse, NY	4.0	1.0	1870	$2,000	$1.07	22d	1	0.89mi
269 W Borden Ave Syracuse, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$650	$0.36	22d	1	0.93mi
260 Robert Dr Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,097	$1.75	44d	1	1.02mi
259 Robert Dr Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.5	1350	$699	$0.52	44d	1	1.03mi
213 Fletcher Ave Unit 2 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	14d	1	1.14mi
158 Parkway Dr Syracuse, NY	4.0	3.0	1029	$2,250	$2.19	22d	1	1.16mi
683 E Seneca Tpke Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,550	$1.65	14d	4	1.25mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $89,900 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $89,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-05-20
   listed $89,900 Active
7. 2001-10-10
   soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $853 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,186 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$333/yr (+$28/mo · 39.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$853
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,771
• − Management: −$1,771
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $9,644
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,315
• After-tax cash flow: $8,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• City population: 152,627
• Population (ZIP): 18,562

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% White 37% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.12%
• Current HPI: 345.8854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+542.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $89,900 CNYIS
• 2001-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $853 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.