102 Spikes Cir · Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$334,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2020 10,498 sqft lot Est $316k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

STOP scrolling and look inside 102 Spike Circle where thoughtful upgrades, timeless finishes, and exceptional outdoor living set this home apart from the typical builder-grade experience. Located on a rare corner lot in Hodges Bayou, this exceptionally maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath Cali floor plan offers 1,788 square feet of comfortable living space on an oversized . 241-acre lot with added privacy. What makes this home unique is that it's ALL BRICK (all 4 sides) in a community where the builder is no longer building full brick homes. Additionally, this light-colored brick home also features a charming front porch and brick columns that are no longer standard for the Cali floorpan in Hodges.

Key facts

• Covered gazebo
• Full brick
• Charming front porch

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FULL BRICK
• CHARMING FRONT PORCH
• BRICK COLUMNS
• CUSTOM PAVERS
• COVERED GAZEBO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with gated community access; Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-story home; Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Open porch; Porch; Gazebo; Fenced yard with privacy fencing; Sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (approx. sizes: 12.9 x 11.6; 10.4 x 11; 10.4 x 11); Additional room on the first floor (approx. 12 x 15)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $334k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-555 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (29.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (41.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southport Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 506 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,505 (41.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.13%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,476
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7199 Big Buck Blvd	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,799 (+1%)	1mo	$324,900	$181	78
3390 Rachel Pl	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,799 (+1%)	1mo	$324,900	$181	78
7219 Big Buck Blvd	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,799 (+1%)	1mo	$333,685	$185	76
3127 Breezy Bay Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,722 (-4%)	1mo	$279,900	$163	74
3123 Sawgrass St	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,722 (-4%)	0mo	$284,900	$165	73
3119 Breezy Bay Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-5%)	1mo	$275,000	$162	69
3131 Breezy Bay Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-5%)	1mo	$296,900	$175	68
3124 Breezy Bay Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-5%)	2mo	$289,900	$171	67
3127 Sawgrass St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-5%)	1mo	$299,900	$177	67
3702 Tippecanoe Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (+2%)	1mo	$599,000	$328	66
3135 Breezy Bay Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,960 (+10%)	2mo	$319,900	$163	63
3394 Rachel Pl	0.45mi	4/3.0	1,968 (+10%)	1mo	$367,900	$187	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $125,638
• Equity at exit: $278,772

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $393,240
• Equity at exit: $579,101

Cash invested: $93,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32409

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,752
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,510/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,658

Max offer price $235,884

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-366	-5% $-461	+0% $-555	+5% $-650	+10% $-744
Rent	-10% $-710	-5% $-633	+0% $-555	+5% $-478	+10% $-401
Rate	-1.0pp $-387	-0.5pp $-470	base $-555	+0.5pp $-642	+1.0pp $-730

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,500
• Closing costs: $10,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $334,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $334,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $334,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $334,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $334,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $334,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $334,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $334,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,000 Active 9 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $334,000 Active 8 DOM
20. 2026-05-21
    listed $334,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,510 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,772 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: +$262/yr (+$22/mo · 10.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,709
• − Property taxes: −$2,510
• − Insurance: −$1,670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$9,716
• Taxable loss: −$12,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,096
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,459
• Population (ZIP): 10,941

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.08%
• Current HPI: 391.06
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $334,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+64.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,510 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.