308 Mcguill · Refugio, TX 78377

$35,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 553 Days on market

Built 1965 7,000 sqft lot ↓ 22% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is a great opportunity for a fixer upper! This home has a new roof and updated electrical. One- bedroom and one-bathroom. Double lot with city water and sewer.

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• Sewer
• Double lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• DOUBLE LOT
• CITY WATER
• SEWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#255 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Refugio ISD (town): math 38% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Refugio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $769 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Refugio County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 553 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 553 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.95%
• DSCR: 3.76
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $27,771
• Equity at exit: $6,485

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.82×
• Total profit: $66,853
• Equity at exit: $5,247

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78377

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $858/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $341

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $526	-5% $516	+0% $506	+5% $496	+10% $486
Rent	-10% $428	-5% $467	+0% $506	+5% $545	+10% $583
Rate	-1.0pp $524	-0.5pp $515	base $506	+0.5pp $497	+1.0pp $488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 E Commons St Refugio, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$1,150	$1.56	44d	1	0.35mi
602 W Commons St Refugio, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$711	$1.02	44d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 553 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 552 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 551 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 550 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $35,000 Active 546 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $35,000 Active 545 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $35,000 Active 544 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $35,000 Active 543 DOM
9. 2024-12-03
   listed $35,000 Active 164-char remark

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Here is a great opportunity for a fixer upper! This home has a new roof and updated electrical. One- bedroom and one-bathroom. Double lot with city water and sewer.

10. 2023-04-28
    price $40,000
11. 2023-01-19
    listed $45,000 Active
12. 2020-12-03
    soldstatus
13. 2014-10-20
    soldstatus
14. 2011-10-18
    soldstatus
15. 2005-04-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $858 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $858 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$858
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$942
• − Management: −$942
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $5,884
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,412
• After-tax cash flow: $4,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Refugio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,181
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5712
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Refugio

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #6003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Refugio, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,376

Population outlook (Refugio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,573 people
• By 2030: 7,665 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 7,895 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 8,234 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 9,521 · +25.7%
• By 2100: 10,148 · +34.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 35% Two or more races 25% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Refugio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.9% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.7 2016: R+27.0 2012: R+24.7 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.20%
• Current HPI: 142.4929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-03 Listed $35,000 CBMLS
• 2023-04-28 Price Changed $40,000 CBMLS
• 2023-01-19 Listed $45,000 CBMLS
• 2020-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $858 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.