72 Lincoln Pl · Liberty, NY 12754

$269,000

6 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1910 7,841 sqft lot Est $230k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

This classic Colonial home offers timeless charm, starting with its welcoming front porch—a signature feature that adds character year round. Inside, the inviting foyer showcases beautiful wood details and a traditional staircase, setting the tone for the home’s warmth and charm. The spacious living and dining areas are filled with natural light, featuring hardwood floors and wood trimmed windows that add a touch of character. The dining room’s bay style windows create an open and airy feel, perfect for gatherings. The kitchen boasts sleek stainless steel appliances, a stylish island and ample cabinet space. Upstairs, you'll find generously sized bedrooms, including a mast

Key facts

• Inviting foyer
• Front porch
• Bay style windows

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• INVITING FOYER
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BAY STYLE WINDOWS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-655 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (43.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#890 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $269k implies a 259% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $153,320 (43.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.43%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,250
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
214 Chestnut St	0.34mi	6/2.0	1,868 (+1%)	8mo	$218,000	$117	74
404 N Main St	0.51mi	6/2.0	1,800 (-2%)	1mo	$225,000	$125	70
43 School St	0.27mi	5/1.5 (-1)	1,704 (-8%)	11mo	$273,000	$160	61
74 Cold Spring Rd	0.72mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (+11%)	1mo	$199,999	$98	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $104,934
• Equity at exit: $242,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $342,081
• Equity at exit: $522,608

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12754

• Home prices YoY: 28.0%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$515 /mo · $6,175/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,579

Max offer price $153,320

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-503	-5% $-579	+0% $-655	+5% $-731	+10% $-807
Rent	-10% $-793	-5% $-724	+0% $-655	+5% $-586	+10% $-517
Rate	-1.0pp $-519	-0.5pp $-586	base $-655	+0.5pp $-725	+1.0pp $-795

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44 Webster Ave Liberty, NY	6.0	1.0	2092	$1,750	$0.84	25d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-19
   listed $269,000 Active
3. 2025-08-11
   historical
4. 2025-04-03
   price $269,000
5. 2025-04-03
   status Active
6. 2025-03-26
   status Pending
7. 2025-02-09
   listed $244,900 Active
8. 2006-11-29
   soldstatus $75,000
9. 1988-05-18
   soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,175 · $515/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,175 · $515/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$6,175
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$12,774
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,066
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617220
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,542
• Composite: 27.65/100
• National rank: #6920
• State rank: #569 of 590 in NY

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #890
• US rank: #17254

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty, NY
• City population: 8,525
• Population (ZIP): 8,525

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 100.10%
• Current HPI: 457.3342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2141.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Listed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-09 Listed $244,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,175 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.