5355 River Rd N · Keizer, OR 97303

$137,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 11 sqft · Land public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Turnkey, move-in ready 2 bedroom, 2 bath home located in desirable 55+ McNary Oaks Mobile Park. Enjoy full access to outstanding community amenities including a clubhouse, pool, event space, sauna, and exercise equipment. This well maintained home features fresh interior paint, new flooring, updated bathrooms, and a welcoming covered front porch - perfect for relaxing year round. A larger carport adds everyday convenience, while the low-maintenance lifestyle allows you to spend more time enjoying what matters most. Ideally situated near grocery stores, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and accessibility. You won’t find a

Key facts

• Built 1977
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keizer Elementary School (561 students, 70% FRL); Claggett Creek Middle School (829 students, 73% FRL); Mcnary High School (2,081 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 53% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 244% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $138k implies a 2192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.05%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,660
• Equity at exit: $20,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $21,998
• Equity at exit: $11,888

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97303

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,062/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,203

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
295 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	23d	1	0.15mi
208 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	1d	2	0.15mi
205 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	13d	1	0.16mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-636 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	43d	1	0.22mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-614 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	13d	1	0.22mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-664 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	13d	1	0.22mi
180 Sandy Dr N Unit 196 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	23d	1	0.25mi
790 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,024	$1.93	10d	11	0.28mi
600 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	43d	1	0.31mi
898 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	903	$1,550	$1.72	13d	3	0.44mi
5799 Trail Ave NE Unit 5819-304 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,695	$1.78	23d	1	0.50mi
5955 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	23d	1	0.51mi
4995 Delight St N Unit 4995-204 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	870	$1,295	$1.49	43d	1	0.51mi
5965 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	43d	1	0.53mi
5945 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	43d	1	0.54mi
5975 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	21d	1	0.55mi
5925 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	7d	1	0.58mi
5905 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	43d	1	0.60mi
861 Chemawa Rd N Unit 881 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	21d	1	0.61mi
4848 Elvira Pl N Keizer, OR	3.0	2.5	1838	$2,600	$1.41	43d	2	0.62mi
5200 Windsor Island Rd N Unit 5204-A Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	—	$1,150	—	23d	1	0.67mi
1063 Koala St N Keizer, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,525	$1.43	4d	3	0.68mi
1102 Orchard Ct N Keizer, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0	955	$1,895	$1.98	43d	1	0.71mi
776 Dearborn Ave NE Keizer, OR	3.0	1.0	1230	$2,300	$1.87	43d	1	0.73mi
4975 13th Ave NE Unit 4986 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	—	$1,425	—	23d	1	0.77mi
4928 13th Ave NE Keizer, OR	4.0	1.5	1312	$2,425	$1.85	21d	1	0.82mi
892 Foothill Ct NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	946	$1,825	$1.93	1d	10	0.85mi
4525 Rivercrest Dr N Unit 4525 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	43d	1	0.94mi
6766 Fenwick Ct N Keizer, OR	4.0	2.0	1488	$2,500	$1.68	23d	1	0.94mi
4853 Verda Ln NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$2,279	$2.35	13d	10	0.95mi
5188 Perry St NE Keizer, OR	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,550	$1.87	13d	1	0.97mi
6700 Hidden Creek Loop NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,612	$2.00	1d	12	0.98mi
6701 Hidden Creek Loop NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	860	$1,600	$1.86	1d	4	0.98mi
589 Greenwood Dr NE Unit Greenwood Dr NE unit 37 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	43d	1	0.98mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5095-202 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	848	$1,400	$1.65	23d	1	1.03mi
491 Marino Dr N Unit 495 Keizer, OR	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,350	$1.83	13d	1	1.04mi
6800 Wheatland Rd N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	986	$1,525	$1.55	16d	1	1.06mi
1220 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	935	$1,399	$1.50	43d	1	1.09mi
1236 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	935	$1,399	$1.50	43d	1	1.13mi
1204 McGee Ct NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,450	$1.43	43d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,500 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,500 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,500 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $137,500 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
6. 2026-04-20
   status Active
7. 2026-03-17
   status Active
8. 2026-01-20
   price $29,500
9. 2026-01-02
   price $34,900
10. 2025-09-15
    listed $39,999 Active
11. 2024-02-10
    historical
12. 2024-02-08
    listed $129,900 Active
13. 2011-06-03
    soldstatus $6,000 Sold
14. 2011-03-08
    listed $7,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$2,062
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,469
• − Management: −$1,469
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable income: $968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$232
• After-tax cash flow: $2,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Keizer

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1918

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keizer, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 40,659
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,659
• Household income: $84,871
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.84%
• Current HPI: 292.0057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+293.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $29,500 RMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $34,900 RMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $39,999 RMLS
• 2024-02-10 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2024-02-08 Listed $129,900 WVMLS
• 2011-06-03 Sold (MLS) $6,000 RMLS
• 2011-03-08 Listed $7,500 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2020): $17,044 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.