4802 Plum Bush St · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Other · 130 Days on market

Built 2023 0.50 ac lot $142/sqft · 24% above area Est $169k · 24% over $8/mo HOA ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oh, come take a look—yes, come follow me! To a whimsical home as fine as can be! Up, up to the deck where the breezes all swoosh, Where the sunset paints skies in a pink-purple whoosh! Stand there just a minute—don’t hurry, don’t race! Let the warm country air gently tickle your face. Hear the trees as they whisper, You’re welcome right here, In this happy-go-lucky, no-worry zone sphere. Now hop, skip, and step through the bright, open door Your feet might just float right above the floor! The living room glows in a sunny delight, Perfect for chat, or a movie at night. Then zoom to the kitchen—oh what a big sight! With cabinets that gleam and a countertop bright. The island says, “Gather! Pull up every chair! Share stories, share snacks, and a laugh if you dare! Sizzle, sizzle! The stove hums a tune, You’ll cook like a chef—maybe morning, maybe noon! Clink glasses, tap forks, let the memories flow, This kitchen is where all the good times will grow. Now off to the bedrooms—one, two, and three! Each cozy, each calm, just as snug as can be. Thermal windows stand guard in the hot Texas sun, Keeping cool all the dreams when the day is done. But wait! There’s more fun—step out to the back, Where green shady trees line the yard in a pack. You’ll grill on the weekends—sizzle, pop, snap! Kids run, jump, and tumble—flop down for a nap. Picnics, games, and fireflies that glow, Summer nights you’ll never outgrow. Birds will sing, and crickets will croon, Under a bright and twinkly moon. So is it just a house? Oh no, not at all! It’s a HOME where you’ll rise and a HOME where you’ll fall Into laughter, love, and moments so sweet— A place where life feels complete. Set on about half an acre—hooray! hooray!

Key facts

• Thermal windows
• Deck
• Kitchen island

Tags

• DECK
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• THERMAL WINDOWS
• HALF AN ACRE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 43% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 930 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,201 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.91%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,995
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: 23.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-28,186
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-26,179
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 930
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $423/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,552

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $201	+0% $142	+5% $-156	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $5	-5% $73	+0% $142	+5% $210	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $195	base $142	+0.5pp $88	+1.0pp $33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	0d	1	0.38mi
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	0d	1	0.66mi
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	45d	1	0.66mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-02-11
    listed $209,000 Active 1847-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1847 chars)

    Oh, come take a look—yes, come follow me! To a whimsical home as fine as can be! Up, up to the deck where the breezes all swoosh, Where the sunset paints skies in a pink-purple whoosh! Stand there just a minute—don’t hurry, don’t race! Let the warm country air gently tickle your face. Hear the trees as they whisper, You’re welcome right here, In this happy-go-lucky, no-worry zone sphere. Now hop, skip, and step through the bright, open door Your feet might just float right above the floor! The living room glows in a sunny delight, Perfect for chat, or a movie at night. Then zoom to the kitchen—oh what a big sight! With cabinets that gleam and a countertop bright. The island says, “Gather! Pull up every chair! Share stories, share snacks, and a laugh if you dare! Sizzle, sizzle! The stove hums a tune, You’ll cook like a chef—maybe morning, maybe noon! Clink glasses, tap forks, let the memories flow, This kitchen is where all the good times will grow. Now off to the bedrooms—one, two, and three! Each cozy, each calm, just as snug as can be. Thermal windows stand guard in the hot Texas sun, Keeping cool all the dreams when the day is done. But wait! There’s more fun—step out to the back, Where green shady trees line the yard in a pack. You’ll grill on the weekends—sizzle, pop, snap! Kids run, jump, and tumble—flop down for a nap. Picnics, games, and fireflies that glow, Summer nights you’ll never outgrow. Birds will sing, and crickets will croon, Under a bright and twinkly moon. So is it just a house? Oh no, not at all! It’s a HOME where you’ll rise and a HOME where you’ll fall Into laughter, love, and moments so sweet— A place where life feels complete. Set on about half an acre—hooray! hooray!

16. 2025-12-22
    historical
17. 2025-09-04
    price $209,000
18. 2025-08-20
    price $219,000
19. 2025-07-16
    listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $423 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,401/yr (+$283/mo · 803.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$423
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$1,893
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$454
• After-tax cash flow: $2,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $209,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $209,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $229,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $423 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.