127 1st St NE · Cass Lake, MN 56633

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 193 Days on market

Built 1968 500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house is priced to sell, located in the city with 2 additional lots adjoining. Property does not have city water.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New siding
• New doors

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DOORS
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.3% in Cass Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#319 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Cass Lake-Bena Public Schools (rural): math 14% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #290 of 301 in MN (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $95k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.82%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $37,910
• Equity at exit: $65,169

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $106,154
• Equity at exit: $123,197

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56633

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $526/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $736

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-01
   status Active
3. 2025-11-24
   historical Contingent - Inspection
4. 2025-09-02
   price $95,000
5. 2025-06-27
   listed $98,900 Active
6. 2024-04-01
   soldstatus $35,000
7. 2024-03-29
   soldstatus $35,000 Sold 119-char remark

   Show marketing remark (119 chars)

   This house is priced to sell, located in the city with 2 additional lots adjoining. Property does not have city water.

8. 2024-03-04
   status Pending 119-char remark

   Show marketing remark (119 chars)

   This house is priced to sell, located in the city with 2 additional lots adjoining. Property does not have city water.

9. 2023-11-19
   listed $35,000 Active 119-char remark

   Show marketing remark (119 chars)

   This house is priced to sell, located in the city with 2 additional lots adjoining. Property does not have city water.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $526 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $795 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$269/yr (+$22/mo · 51.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$526
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$810
• − Management: −$810
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$140
• After-tax cash flow: $1,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cass Lake-Bena Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2708070
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,458
• Composite: 16.58/100
• National rank: #9177
• State rank: #290 of 301 in MN

Livability — Cass Lake

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #7129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cass Lake, MN
• Population (ZIP): 4,863

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,371 people
• By 2030: 26,311 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 23,945 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 21,889 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 18,435 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 14,478 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.90)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 51% White 32% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 32.6% · R 66.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+31.7 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.89%
• Current HPI: 340.4577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+171.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $95,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Listed $98,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-29 Sold (MLS) $35,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-04 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-19 Listed $35,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $526 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.