16011 Chieftain Dr · Dade City North, FL 33523

$161,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $265k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Contact Info (no spaces on the email): r e a l t o [email protected] Great Opportunity knocks with this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home located in a quiet, family-friendly neighborhood. (no spaces on the email): r e a l t o [email protected]. This property is being sold as-is and offers a solid layout with loads of potential for the right buyer. Inside, you & rsquo; ll find a functional floor plan with generously sized bedrooms and a convenient half bath, making it ideal for a growing family or future renovation. The home sits on a lot with good backyard space, perfect for outdoor entertaining, pets, gardening, or future expansion. Whether you & rsquo; re a homeowner looking to cus

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Solid layout
• Good backyard space

Tags

• SOLID LAYOUT
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• GOOD BACKYARD SPACE
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• WELL-ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $161k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $161k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#849 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $161k implies a 395% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,924
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37324 Rose Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,163 (-2%)	12mo	$170,000	$146	75
16012 Chieftain Dr	0.02mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,074 (-10%)	19mo	$240,000	$223	62
15306 16th St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,089 (-8%)	7mo	$253,000	$232	38
15301 16th St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+9%)	22mo	$170,000	$131	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $96,326
• Equity at exit: $145,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $277,031
• Equity at exit: $312,788

Cash invested: $45,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$844
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,074/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $161,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $180	+0% $135	+5% $89	+10% $44
Rent	-10% $5	-5% $70	+0% $135	+5% $200	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $176	base $135	+0.5pp $93	+1.0pp $51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,250
• Closing costs: $4,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14635 State St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.5	1040	$1,731	$1.66	0d	1	1.37mi
37802 Whitehouse Ave Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1344	$1,150	$0.86	25d	1	1.40mi
14907 Lucca Way Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $161,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $161,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $161,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $161,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $161,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $161,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $161,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $161,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $161,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $161,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $161,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $161,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $161,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-01-29
    listed $161,000 Active
15. 1989-07-01
    soldstatus $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,074 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,074 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,019
• − Property taxes: −$3,074
• − Insurance: −$805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,583
• − Management: −$1,583
• − Depreciation: −$4,684
• Taxable loss: −$964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$231
• After-tax cash flow: $1,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City North

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #849
• US rank: #21700

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City North, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+395.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $161,000 Fizber.com
• 1989-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,074 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.