305 Aileen Ave · Santa Rosa, CA 95407

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 79 Days on market

Built 1965 Est $179k · 41% under ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in Santa Rosa's 55+ Lamplighter Mobile Home Park, the home, which measures roughly 1,100 Sq Ft (buyers to verify). Two bedrooms and two full baths. The guest bath has shower over tub. A covered carport and two good-sized storage sheds. Excellent central location just off Santa Rosa Ave near Trader Joes, Costco, Target and Petco!

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Central location
• Storage sheds

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHEDS
• CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount: $505 (future space rent listed as $505)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide)
• Construction: Manufactured home by Star; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Located in a manufactured home park; Land lease required

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Free standing electric oven; Free standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms; Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Free standing electric oven; Free standing refrigerator; Gas cooktop; Gas water heater; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: other (details not provided)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.4% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.00%
• DSCR: 3.40
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Aileen Ave	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,100 (0%)	0mo	$105,000	$95	100
220 Ricardo Ave	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,100 (0%)	1mo	$179,000	$163	95
205 Pear Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+0%)	8mo	$160,000	$145	85
196 Pear Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,106 (+0%)	14mo	$165,000	$149	79
275 Ricardo Ave	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	9mo	$190,000	$152	68
38 Wayside Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-6%)	9mo	$205,000	$197	60
2313 Calico Ln #67	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-2%)	16mo	$187,000	$173	60
102 Apple Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+10%)	19mo	$127,000	$104	56
116 Coachman Ln #27	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (-4%)	11mo	$237,950	$227	54
3050 El Toro Way	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-9%)	18mo	$188,500	$189	53
55 Wayside Dr	0.55mi	2/1.0	940 (-14%)	2mo	$105,000	$112	44
146 N Star Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-13%)	11mo	$157,000	$164	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $67,098
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $166,333
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95407

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $1,323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,563	$3.45	13d	10	0.13mi
2327 Summercreek Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$2,920	$2.69	13d	6	0.15mi
524 Court St Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.5	1171	$2,750	$2.35	13d	1	0.20mi
325 Yolanda Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$2,852	$2.49	13d	15	0.33mi
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,874	$1.86	13d	1	0.53mi
2585 Kenton Ct Unit B Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	789	$2,150	$2.72	13d	1	0.62mi
1020 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,860	$3.21	13d	27	0.63mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2134-211 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$2,075	$2.88	13d	1	0.63mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2130-101 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	920	$2,450	$2.66	13d	1	0.63mi
2146 Bedford St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,900	$2.64	13d	1	0.66mi
2350 Corby Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,185	$2.42	13d	1	0.66mi
2111 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,892	$3.09	13d	8	0.71mi
2150 Onyx Way Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1240	$3,000	$2.42	21d	1	0.80mi
147 Colgan Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	623	$1,941	$3.12	13d	3	0.92mi
517 Debbie Dr Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,000	$2.49	21d	1	1.08mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1591 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$2,500	$3.35	13d	1	1.09mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1555 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$1,995	$2.67	13d	1	1.09mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 3075 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1047	$2,850	$2.72	13d	1	1.09mi
1053 Dutton Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.5	850	$2,200	$2.59	13d	1	1.42mi
927 Delport Ave Unit 2 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	1.0	751	$2,500	$3.33	13d	1	1.45mi
927 Delport Ave Unit 4 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	1.0	751	$2,500	$3.33	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   historical Contingent (Show)
3. 2026-05-02
   price $105,000
4. 2026-04-17
   status Active
5. 2026-03-26
   price $120,000
6. 2026-03-26
   status Active
7. 2026-03-21
   price $139,500
8. 2026-02-24
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,489
• − Management: −$2,489
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $15,102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,624
• After-tax cash flow: $12,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,036
• Household income: $82,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1943.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -852.74%
• Current HPI: 256.4307
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-27.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $105,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $120,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $139,500 BAREIS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $145,000 BAREIS