241 Lincoln Ave · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$114,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,938 sqft · MultiFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1903 4,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

2 Family rental unit. 2 Br Lower apt vacant . Previously rented $700/mo plus elect/gas. Upper is 2 Br unit renting for $625/mo plus elect/gas. Separate electric and gas meters. Basement walls sealed. 2 washer/dryer hookups in basement. New hot water tanks 2018; Check valve for water line installed 2019. Paved driveway for 2 cars for off street parking. Rental income @15900/yr or live in one unit and rent the other. Low taxes.

Key facts

• Near lake erie
• Near restaurants
• Investment property

Tags

• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• NEW ROOF
• NEAR SHOPS
• NEAR RESTAURANTS
• NEAR LAKE ERIE
• NEAR NYS THRUWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $761 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $114k).
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($788 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1903 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $114,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1903 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.59%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $74,296
• Equity at exit: $64,124

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $183,011
• Equity at exit: $110,275

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,960 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$142 /mo · $1,710/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $114,000

Occupancy floor 56%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,960
Total (2 units)			$1,960

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $114,000 Active
3. 2021-09-24
   soldstatus $92,000 Closed Sale or Rented 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   2 Family rental unit. 2 Br Lower apt vacant . Previously rented $700/mo plus elect/gas. Upper is 2 Br unit renting for $625/mo plus elect/gas. Separate electric and gas meters. Basement walls sealed. 2 washer/dryer hookups in basement. New hot water tanks 2018; Check valve for water line installed 2019. Paved driveway for 2 cars for off street parking. Rental income @15900/yr or live in one unit and rent the other. Low taxes.

4. 2021-07-20
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   2 Family rental unit. 2 Br Lower apt vacant . Previously rented $700/mo plus elect/gas. Upper is 2 Br unit renting for $625/mo plus elect/gas. Separate electric and gas meters. Basement walls sealed. 2 washer/dryer hookups in basement. New hot water tanks 2018; Check valve for water line installed 2019. Paved driveway for 2 cars for off street parking. Rental income @15900/yr or live in one unit and rent the other. Low taxes.

5. 2021-07-06
   price $91,900 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   2 Family rental unit. 2 Br Lower apt vacant . Previously rented $700/mo plus elect/gas. Upper is 2 Br unit renting for $625/mo plus elect/gas. Separate electric and gas meters. Basement walls sealed. 2 washer/dryer hookups in basement. New hot water tanks 2018; Check valve for water line installed 2019. Paved driveway for 2 cars for off street parking. Rental income @15900/yr or live in one unit and rent the other. Low taxes.

6. 2021-06-07
   listed $94,500 Active 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   2 Family rental unit. 2 Br Lower apt vacant . Previously rented $700/mo plus elect/gas. Upper is 2 Br unit renting for $625/mo plus elect/gas. Separate electric and gas meters. Basement walls sealed. 2 washer/dryer hookups in basement. New hot water tanks 2018; Check valve for water line installed 2019. Paved driveway for 2 cars for off street parking. Rental income @15900/yr or live in one unit and rent the other. Low taxes.

7. 2005-08-05
   soldstatus $11,500 85-char remark

   Show marketing remark (85 chars)

   Bank owned. Needs TLC, but in nice neighborhood with driveway. New Electric service.

8. 2004-12-01
   listed $20,000 85-char remark

   Show marketing remark (85 chars)

   Bank owned. Needs TLC, but in nice neighborhood with driveway. New Electric service.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$1,710
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,882
• − Management: −$1,882
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable income: $7,775
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,866
• After-tax cash flow: $7,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+470.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $114,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-09-24 Sold (MLS) $92,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-07-20 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-07-06 Price Changed $91,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-06-07 Listed $94,500 UNYREIS
• 2005-08-05 Sold (MLS) $11,500 UNYREIS
• 2004-12-01 Listed $20,000 UNYREIS