4306 Butterscotch Cir · Lakeland, FL 33811

$263,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Townhouse · 56 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,178 sqft lot $124/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. This spacious townhome features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. As you enter the foyer you are welcomed with powder room, spacious kitchen, dining area and a living room. The well-appointed kitchen features an island with bar seating, plentiful cabinets, counter space and stainless-steel appliances, making entertaining a breeze. As we head upstairs, you are greeted with a landing area and linen closet. Bedroom one is located just off the landing area and includes a spacious walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. The second floor is complete with two guest bedrooms, an additional bathroom, along with laundry closet. This popular townhome features a singl

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Plentiful cabinets
• Counter space

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ISLAND WITH BAR SEATING
• PLENTIFUL CABINETS
• COUNTER SPACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,389; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Leland Management, Inc.; Monthly HOA $124 (includes pool); Association amenities: Clubhouse, Fitness Center, Park, Playground, Pool, Sidewalks, Street Lights, Irrigation-Reclaimed Water; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; BB/HS Internet available; Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; Under construction (projected completion May 8, 2026); Two stories; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (Builder model: Pearson); Builder license CBC1265174
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Landscaped; Paved; City limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Stone counters; Thermostat; Window treatments; Blinds; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry; Laundry closet; Upper-level laundry; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $264k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Bruce Wagner Elementary School (math 54% / reading 42%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 946 students, 46% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $233,542 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-56,041
• Equity at exit: $39,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-83,226
• Equity at exit: $22,817

Cash invested: $73,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,958/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$124
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,466

Max offer price $249,029

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,975
• Closing costs: $7,917
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3978 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1711	$2,395	$1.40	14d	1	0.67mi
5765 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,199	$1.32	2d	1	0.67mi
3883 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1628	$1,998	$1.23	2d	1	0.89mi
3798 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,395	$1.40	19d	1	0.95mi
4505 Breccia Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,029	$1.32	14d	1	1.19mi
5340 Song Sparrow Ct Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,076	$1.22	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $124 · $1,488/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $263,900 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $263,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $263,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $263,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $263,900 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $264,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $264,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $268,990 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $268,990 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $268,990
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $267,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,783
• − Property taxes: −$3,958
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − HOA: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$7,677
• Taxable loss: −$5,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,364
• After-tax cash flow: $131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This spacious townhome is under construction and is in excellent condition. It features a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, hardwood floors, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is ready for move-in and will be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value to the home.
• Rental Inspect and clean gutters — Keeps the property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value to the home. ↑
• Rental Inspect and clean gutters — Keeps the property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $268,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $267,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid