15118 SW 46th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$233,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2021 10,454 sqft lot $168/sqft · 7% below area Est $257k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully updated and move-in ready! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath concrete block home features fresh interior and exterior paint, new lighting, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and new granite countertops, opening to the main living area and leading out to a new deck overlooking the fully fenced backyard—perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated with granite countertops and new fixtures. The primary suite features a spacious layout with a walk-in closet, double sinks, a large walk-in shower, and a linen closet. All bedrooms have generous living and closet space. The roof, AC, and water heater are from 2021. Situated on a quiet, low-traffic street, this home is conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and more—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Walk-in closet
• New deck

Tags

• NEW DECK
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,908 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,729
• List price: $233,900
• Delta: -8.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15290 SW 49th Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-6%)	20mo	$259,900	$198	69
498 Marion Oaks Mnr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-7%)	15mo	$189,888	$147	63
15298 SW 43rd Avenue Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-6%)	15mo	$256,400	$195	63
4977 SW 157th St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-3%)	19mo	$260,000	$193	61
4976 SW 157th St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+4%)	21mo	$295,000	$204	56
490 Marion Oaks Mnr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+8%)	21mo	$315,000	$209	53
14870 SW 43rd Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+5%)	15mo	$303,500	$208	52
15068 SW 43rd Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-11%)	16mo	$250,000	$201	46
4784 SW 159th Lane Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+5%)	20mo	$274,900	$187	46
5417 SW 153rd ST Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	22mo	$280,000	$192	45
14742 SW 43rd Terrace Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+9%)	15mo	$272,500	$180	44
4500 SW 159th Street Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+5%)	22mo	$295,000	$202	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-54,024
• Equity at exit: $34,875

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-81,979
• Equity at exit: $20,223

Cash invested: $65,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,227
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,115/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,110

Max offer price $204,454

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,475
• Closing costs: $7,017
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15209 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,650	$0.98	21d	1	0.21mi
15018 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,625	$1.15	13d	1	0.22mi
14965 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1342	$1,700	$1.27	13d	1	0.24mi
422 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,900	$1.20	13d	1	0.25mi
5029 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.26mi
14919 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1870	$2,000	$1.07	13d	1	0.26mi
4967 SW 150th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	21d	1	0.29mi
5077 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1761	$2,045	$1.16	13d	1	0.31mi
576 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,845	$1.08	13d	1	0.35mi
15095 SW 51st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,500	$1.25	13d	1	0.35mi
4484 SW 151st St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	21d	1	0.38mi
4572 SW 149th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,950	$1.11	21d	1	0.39mi
15568 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,200	$1.20	13d	1	0.43mi
14843 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1573	$1,725	$1.10	21d	1	0.43mi
15760 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,000	$1.32	21d	1	0.44mi
5141 SW 157th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.48mi
4605 SW 158th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,695	$0.99	21d	1	0.50mi
15713 SW 49th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.54mi
5541 SW 153rd Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,700	$1.25	13d	1	0.60mi
14614 SW 46th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	21d	1	0.66mi
15944 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,850	$1.40	21d	1	0.75mi
15962 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	13d	1	0.78mi
15712 SW 37th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,850	$1.02	21d	1	0.83mi
14525 SW 42nd Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,850	$1.38	13d	1	0.88mi
333 Marion Oaks Golf Way Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	13d	1	0.95mi
16090 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.96mi
16094 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	13d	1	0.98mi
15945 SW 57th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,675	$1.18	21d	1	1.06mi
15889 SW 58th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,875	$1.06	13d	1	1.07mi
4309 SW 143rd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,799	$1.45	13d	1	1.08mi
16054 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	13d	1	1.08mi
15284 SW 60th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	13d	1	1.10mi
16210 SW 59th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	13d	1	1.17mi
14193 SW 44th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,599	$1.10	13d	1	1.18mi
3567 SW 151st St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,450	$1.29	21d	1	1.19mi
14856 SW 35th Cir Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,450	$1.40	13d	1	1.21mi
15137 SW 61st Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,650	$1.20	21d	1	1.25mi
15885 SW 35th Court Rd Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,550	$1.29	21d	1	1.29mi
3500 SW 150th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1789	$1,750	$0.98	13d	1	1.30mi
15729 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,400	$1.42	13d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $233,900 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $233,900 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $233,900 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $233,900 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $233,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-05-06
   status Active 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Fully updated and move-in ready! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath concrete block home features fresh interior and exterior paint, new lighting, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and new granite countertops, opening to the main living area and leading out to a new deck overlooking the fully fenced backyard—perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated with granite countertops and new fixtures. The primary suite features a spacious layout with a walk-in closet, double sinks, a large walk-in shower, and a linen closet. All bedrooms have generous living and closet space. The roof, AC, and water heater are from 2021. Situated on a quiet, low-traffic street, this home is conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and more—schedule your showing today!

7. 2026-04-24
   status Pending 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Fully updated and move-in ready! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath concrete block home features fresh interior and exterior paint, new lighting, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and new granite countertops, opening to the main living area and leading out to a new deck overlooking the fully fenced backyard—perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated with granite countertops and new fixtures. The primary suite features a spacious layout with a walk-in closet, double sinks, a large walk-in shower, and a linen closet. All bedrooms have generous living and closet space. The roof, AC, and water heater are from 2021. Situated on a quiet, low-traffic street, this home is conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and more—schedule your showing today!

8. 2026-04-07
   price $233,900 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Fully updated and move-in ready! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath concrete block home features fresh interior and exterior paint, new lighting, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and new granite countertops, opening to the main living area and leading out to a new deck overlooking the fully fenced backyard—perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated with granite countertops and new fixtures. The primary suite features a spacious layout with a walk-in closet, double sinks, a large walk-in shower, and a linen closet. All bedrooms have generous living and closet space. The roof, AC, and water heater are from 2021. Situated on a quiet, low-traffic street, this home is conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and more—schedule your showing today!

9. 2026-03-23
   listed $235,900 Active 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Fully updated and move-in ready! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath concrete block home features fresh interior and exterior paint, new lighting, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and new granite countertops, opening to the main living area and leading out to a new deck overlooking the fully fenced backyard—perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Both bathrooms have been tastefully updated with granite countertops and new fixtures. The primary suite features a spacious layout with a walk-in closet, double sinks, a large walk-in shower, and a linen closet. All bedrooms have generous living and closet space. The roof, AC, and water heater are from 2021. Situated on a quiet, low-traffic street, this home is conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and more—schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,115 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,115 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,102
• − Property taxes: −$4,115
• − Insurance: −$1,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$6,804
• Taxable loss: −$6,048
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,452
• After-tax cash flow: $-549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $233,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $235,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+34.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,115 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.