378 Archway Rd · Blue Ridge, VA 24064

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1955 1.36 ac lot $240/sqft · 50% above area Est $400k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This brick ranch is more than a floor plan, it's a home with good bones, warm character, and room to become something truly special. Beyond the basics, you'll find details that invite imagination like the knotty pine kitchen cabinetry ready to hold heirloom dishes, handwritten recipes, and the pieces of life you never want tucked too far away. Hardwood floors stretch through much of the main level, just waiting for quiet mornings and the kind of evenings where the music gets turned up just a little too loud. The dining area feels like the place where first meals are celebrated, holiday traditions are repeated, and everyday moments somehow become the ones you remember. An enclosed porch offers extra room to sip coffee, start seedlings, store muddy boots, or simply enjoy a little breathing room between indoors and out. Inside, the layout offers a comfortable flow with three bedrooms on the main level, while the basement expands the possibilities with generous unfinished space, a second bath, and room to workshop, store, create, or grow. Out back, the yard opens enough for starry nights, a game of catch or a curious dog. This home isn't trying to be flashy. It's offering something better, a sturdy, story-filled starting point for someone who can see the beauty in what could be.

Key facts

• Second bath
• Enclosed porch
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• KNOTTY PINE KITCHEN CABINETRY
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• SECOND BATH
• GENEROUS UNFINISHED SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Blue Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#200 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Botetourt County Public School District (rural): math 76% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #6 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 116 units permitted in Botetourt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Botetourt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,000 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,871
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -25.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
294 Webster Heights Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,386 (+11%)	1mo	$214,400	$155	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-58,400
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-64,008
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24064

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,448/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,295

Max offer price $271,749

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3465 Webster Rd Blue Ridge, VA	3.0	1.0	1008	$2,100	$2.08	44d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-06
   listed $299,000 Active 1295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

   This brick ranch is more than a floor plan, it's a home with good bones, warm character, and room to become something truly special. Beyond the basics, you'll find details that invite imagination like the knotty pine kitchen cabinetry ready to hold heirloom dishes, handwritten recipes, and the pieces of life you never want tucked too far away. Hardwood floors stretch through much of the main level, just waiting for quiet mornings and the kind of evenings where the music gets turned up just a little too loud. The dining area feels like the place where first meals are celebrated, holiday traditions are repeated, and everyday moments somehow become the ones you remember. An enclosed porch offers extra room to sip coffee, start seedlings, store muddy boots, or simply enjoy a little breathing room between indoors and out. Inside, the layout offers a comfortable flow with three bedrooms on the main level, while the basement expands the possibilities with generous unfinished space, a second bath, and room to workshop, store, create, or grow. Out back, the yard opens enough for starry nights, a game of catch or a curious dog. This home isn't trying to be flashy. It's offering something better, a sturdy, story-filled starting point for someone who can see the beauty in what could be.

2. 2023-03-27
   soldstatus $224,950
3. 2023-03-24
   soldstatus $224,950 Closed 515-char remark

   Show marketing remark (515 chars)

   Brick ranch located on a 1.35 ac lot with a stream. Main level features 3 BR, 1 Bath, LR, DR, Kitchen, Hardwood floors, and Enclosed Side porch. Full walkout basement includes a full bath, laundry area with sink and plenty of storage. Central Vac. New kitchen floor. Updated Windows. Large outbuilding included. Paved driveway. Mountain views. Conveniently located just a short drive to Bonsack area-close to shopping, restaurants, and Health care. Blue Ridge park close by. New Colonial Elementary School building.

4. 2023-02-17
   status Pending 515-char remark

   Show marketing remark (515 chars)

   Brick ranch located on a 1.35 ac lot with a stream. Main level features 3 BR, 1 Bath, LR, DR, Kitchen, Hardwood floors, and Enclosed Side porch. Full walkout basement includes a full bath, laundry area with sink and plenty of storage. Central Vac. New kitchen floor. Updated Windows. Large outbuilding included. Paved driveway. Mountain views. Conveniently located just a short drive to Bonsack area-close to shopping, restaurants, and Health care. Blue Ridge park close by. New Colonial Elementary School building.

5. 2023-02-07
   price $224,950 515-char remark

   Show marketing remark (515 chars)

   Brick ranch located on a 1.35 ac lot with a stream. Main level features 3 BR, 1 Bath, LR, DR, Kitchen, Hardwood floors, and Enclosed Side porch. Full walkout basement includes a full bath, laundry area with sink and plenty of storage. Central Vac. New kitchen floor. Updated Windows. Large outbuilding included. Paved driveway. Mountain views. Conveniently located just a short drive to Bonsack area-close to shopping, restaurants, and Health care. Blue Ridge park close by. New Colonial Elementary School building.

6. 2022-11-18
   listed $229,950 Active 515-char remark

   Show marketing remark (515 chars)

   Brick ranch located on a 1.35 ac lot with a stream. Main level features 3 BR, 1 Bath, LR, DR, Kitchen, Hardwood floors, and Enclosed Side porch. Full walkout basement includes a full bath, laundry area with sink and plenty of storage. Central Vac. New kitchen floor. Updated Windows. Large outbuilding included. Paved driveway. Mountain views. Conveniently located just a short drive to Bonsack area-close to shopping, restaurants, and Health care. Blue Ridge park close by. New Colonial Elementary School building.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,448 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,452 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,004/yr (+$84/mo · 69.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,448
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,733
• After-tax cash flow: $-118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Botetourt County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100420
• Math proficiency: 76% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,125
• Composite: 68.07/100
• National rank: #355
• State rank: #6 of 131 in VA

Livability — Blue Ridge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #200
• US rank: #6182

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blue Ridge, VA
• Population (ZIP): 5,226

Population outlook (Botetourt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,273 people
• By 2030: 34,457 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 34,051 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -4.2%
• By 2075: 30,720 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 26,395 · -23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Botetourt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+38.6 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.90%
• Current HPI: 160.6289
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+30.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $299,000 MLSRV
• 2023-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $224,950 Public Records
• 2023-03-24 Sold (MLS) $224,950 MLSRV
• 2023-02-17 Pending — MLSRV
• 2023-02-07 Price Changed $224,950 MLSRV
• 2022-11-18 Listed $229,950 MLSRV

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,448 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.