330 Spica Ln · Big Coppitt Key, FL 33040

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 897 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1975 5,196 sqft lot Est $490k · 39% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ROGO exemption, swim canal, many mobile homes have been replaced in the subdivision with new structures. Rear deck, seawall, nice side entry. Just down the road is Geiger Key restaurant, bar, water activities.

Key facts

• Side entry
• Seawall
• Rear deck

Tags

• REAR DECK
• SEAWALL
• SIDE ENTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned URM (Urban Res Mobile Home District); Lot is less than 1/4 acre (about 0.12 acres); Flood zone AE; Pets allowed; Rentals allowed; Deed restriction status unknown
• HOA & community: No association fees; No association first right of refusal; Association does not include any services

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Security: No security system
• Utilities: Municipal sewer with public sewer hook-up
• Home design: Single wide manufactured home; Facing ocean side (near Mile Marker 9)
• Construction: Built in 1975; Manufactured construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; On waterfront with canal view; Plugged canal front; Seawall dockage made of concrete

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No cooling
• Interior features: Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-309/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (1.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.5% in Big Coppitt Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.74%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $489,762
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
81 Sirius Ln	0.12mi	2/1.0	944 (+5%)	8mo	$515,000	$546	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,201
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-20,814
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33040

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,251/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,025

Max offer price $294,451

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $59	+0% $-26	+5% $-110	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-262	-5% $-144	+0% $-26	+5% $92	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $50	base $-26	+0.5pp $-103	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-04-15
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,251 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,251 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,251
• − Insurance: −$6,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,873
• − Management: −$2,873
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,235
• After-tax cash flow: $926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Big Coppitt Key

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #13457

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Coppitt Key, FL
• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,429
• Household income: $86,586
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2502.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Black 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 14%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -814.48%
• Current HPI: 168.5706
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.52%
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $299,000 FLKMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,251 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.