16 Leers Rd · Eldred, NY 12737

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,254 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2025 2.38 ac lot $318/sqft · at area comps Est $465k · 14% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL MODERN CAPE WITH LAKE PRIVILEGES TO MOHICAN LAKE IN GLEN SPEY, NY - Welcome to this newly built home set quietly on pretty a 2.38 acre lot. Inside you have a modern take on a cape that feels fresh, with clean lines and well done. This three bedroom/two full bath home features an open floor plan in the main living area. The living room has an electric fireplace for that cozy evening ambiance. The kitchen is perfectly setup with quality stainless steel appliances any cook would love, a huge island gives lots of room for food preparation and seating, which makes this space perfect for entertaining. Off the kitchen is a nice dining area with lots of light that looks out onto the large backyard with sliders that take you to the back deck. On the main level you have your laundry room, two bedrooms, one with a large en suite bathroom which makes for easy living. Upstairs is the private master suite that anyone would love to have, a huge walk-in closet, a nice size en suite bathroom and the space features a nook for a home office or a peaceful reading nook. The backyard is large, offers many possibilities for outdoor living, enough sun for gardens, room for a pool and a fire pit or just sitting on the back deck relaxing. BONUS LAKE LIFE - Mohican Lake is a private 188 acre stunning lake that will take summer living to the next level. For a small annual fee you can use your lake privileges for kayaking, motor boating, fishing or swimming. Approximately a two hour drive from NYC or 20 minutes away you can take a NJ Transit train into the city. Close by you'll find many quaint towns for dining/shopping, the Delaware River for rafting/fishing, Bethel Woods Preforming Arts Center for amazing concerts under the stars, Kartrite Indoor Water Park, Resorts World Casino, skiing at Holiday Mountain/Big Bear at Masthope Mountain, many amazing hiking/biking trails and absolutely the best farmers markets you'll find anywhere. Just a few miles away is the Kadampa Meditation Center and the sought after Homestead Montessori School offering a unique education, all for living your best and very beautiful life in the country.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Lake privileges
• Private master suite

Tags

• LAKE PRIVILEGES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• HUGE ISLAND
• LARGE BACKYARD
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-524 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.2% in Eldred — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $296,680 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,613
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -14.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $184,041
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $568,442
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12737

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$588 /mo · $7,058/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,630

Max offer price $306,422

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44 Delaware Trl Glen Spey, NY	2.0	1.0	936	$3,500	$3.74	14d	1	0.29mi
4 Beach Rd Glen Spey, NY	3.0	1.0	999	$2,000	$2.00	14d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpool

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $399,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $399,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $405,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $405,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $405,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $405,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $405,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $405,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $405,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $429,000 2160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2160 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL MODERN CAPE WITH LAKE PRIVILEGES TO MOHICAN LAKE IN GLEN SPEY, NY - Welcome to this newly built home set quietly on pretty a 2.38 acre lot. Inside you have a modern take on a cape that feels fresh, with clean lines and well done. This three bedroom/two full bath home features an open floor plan in the main living area. The living room has an electric fireplace for that cozy evening ambiance. The kitchen is perfectly setup with quality stainless steel appliances any cook would love, a huge island gives lots of room for food preparation and seating, which makes this space perfect for entertaining. Off the kitchen is a nice dining area with lots of light that looks out onto the large backyard with sliders that take you to the back deck. On the main level you have your laundry room, two bedrooms, one with a large en suite bathroom which makes for easy living. Upstairs is the private master suite that anyone would love to have, a huge walk-in closet, a nice size en suite bathroom and the space features a nook for a home office or a peaceful reading nook. The backyard is large, offers many possibilities for outdoor living, enough sun for gardens, room for a pool and a fire pit or just sitting on the back deck relaxing. BONUS LAKE LIFE - Mohican Lake is a private 188 acre stunning lake that will take summer living to the next level. For a small annual fee you can use your lake privileges for kayaking, motor boating, fishing or swimming. Approximately a two hour drive from NYC or 20 minutes away you can take a NJ Transit train into the city. Close by you'll find many quaint towns for dining/shopping, the Delaware River for rafting/fishing, Bethel Woods Preforming Arts Center for amazing concerts under the stars, Kartrite Indoor Water Park, Resorts World Casino, skiing at Holiday Mountain/Big Bear at Masthope Mountain, many amazing hiking/biking trails and absolutely the best farmers markets you'll find anywhere. Just a few miles away is the Kadampa Meditation Center and the sought after Homestead Montessori School offering a unique education, all for living your best and very beautiful life in the country.

17. 2026-04-06
    price $434,000 2160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2160 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL MODERN CAPE WITH LAKE PRIVILEGES TO MOHICAN LAKE IN GLEN SPEY, NY - Welcome to this newly built home set quietly on pretty a 2.38 acre lot. Inside you have a modern take on a cape that feels fresh, with clean lines and well done. This three bedroom/two full bath home features an open floor plan in the main living area. The living room has an electric fireplace for that cozy evening ambiance. The kitchen is perfectly setup with quality stainless steel appliances any cook would love, a huge island gives lots of room for food preparation and seating, which makes this space perfect for entertaining. Off the kitchen is a nice dining area with lots of light that looks out onto the large backyard with sliders that take you to the back deck. On the main level you have your laundry room, two bedrooms, one with a large en suite bathroom which makes for easy living. Upstairs is the private master suite that anyone would love to have, a huge walk-in closet, a nice size en suite bathroom and the space features a nook for a home office or a peaceful reading nook. The backyard is large, offers many possibilities for outdoor living, enough sun for gardens, room for a pool and a fire pit or just sitting on the back deck relaxing. BONUS LAKE LIFE - Mohican Lake is a private 188 acre stunning lake that will take summer living to the next level. For a small annual fee you can use your lake privileges for kayaking, motor boating, fishing or swimming. Approximately a two hour drive from NYC or 20 minutes away you can take a NJ Transit train into the city. Close by you'll find many quaint towns for dining/shopping, the Delaware River for rafting/fishing, Bethel Woods Preforming Arts Center for amazing concerts under the stars, Kartrite Indoor Water Park, Resorts World Casino, skiing at Holiday Mountain/Big Bear at Masthope Mountain, many amazing hiking/biking trails and absolutely the best farmers markets you'll find anywhere. Just a few miles away is the Kadampa Meditation Center and the sought after Homestead Montessori School offering a unique education, all for living your best and very beautiful life in the country.

18. 2026-02-16
    listed $439,000 Active 2160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2160 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL MODERN CAPE WITH LAKE PRIVILEGES TO MOHICAN LAKE IN GLEN SPEY, NY - Welcome to this newly built home set quietly on pretty a 2.38 acre lot. Inside you have a modern take on a cape that feels fresh, with clean lines and well done. This three bedroom/two full bath home features an open floor plan in the main living area. The living room has an electric fireplace for that cozy evening ambiance. The kitchen is perfectly setup with quality stainless steel appliances any cook would love, a huge island gives lots of room for food preparation and seating, which makes this space perfect for entertaining. Off the kitchen is a nice dining area with lots of light that looks out onto the large backyard with sliders that take you to the back deck. On the main level you have your laundry room, two bedrooms, one with a large en suite bathroom which makes for easy living. Upstairs is the private master suite that anyone would love to have, a huge walk-in closet, a nice size en suite bathroom and the space features a nook for a home office or a peaceful reading nook. The backyard is large, offers many possibilities for outdoor living, enough sun for gardens, room for a pool and a fire pit or just sitting on the back deck relaxing. BONUS LAKE LIFE - Mohican Lake is a private 188 acre stunning lake that will take summer living to the next level. For a small annual fee you can use your lake privileges for kayaking, motor boating, fishing or swimming. Approximately a two hour drive from NYC or 20 minutes away you can take a NJ Transit train into the city. Close by you'll find many quaint towns for dining/shopping, the Delaware River for rafting/fishing, Bethel Woods Preforming Arts Center for amazing concerts under the stars, Kartrite Indoor Water Park, Resorts World Casino, skiing at Holiday Mountain/Big Bear at Masthope Mountain, many amazing hiking/biking trails and absolutely the best farmers markets you'll find anywhere. Just a few miles away is the Kadampa Meditation Center and the sought after Homestead Montessori School offering a unique education, all for living your best and very beautiful life in the country.

19. 2025-10-16
    listed $439,900 Active
20. 2025-02-25
    soldstatus $397,000
21. 2025-02-24
    soldstatus $397,000 Closed
22. 2025-02-24
    soldstatus $397,000 Closed
23. 2025-02-04
    status Pending
24. 2025-02-04
    status Pending
25. 2024-11-05
    listed $399,900 Active
26. 2024-11-01
    listed $399,900 Active
27. 2024-11-01
    historical
28. 2024-11-01
    listed $399,900 Active
29. 2024-10-15
    historical
30. 2024-01-19
    listed $429,900 Active
31. 2024-01-18
    listed $429,900 Active
32. 2023-10-24
    soldstatus $137,500
33. 2020-12-18
    soldstatus $20,000
34. 2004-02-02
    soldstatus $18,500
35. 2003-12-19
    price $18,900
36. 2003-12-19
    historical
37. 2003-03-31
    listed $18,500
38. 2002-01-11
    soldstatus $197,000
39. 2001-12-11
    price $199,900
40. 2001-12-11
    historical
41. 2001-07-20
    listed $197,000
42. 2000-05-15
    soldstatus $177,000
43. 2000-03-28
    historical
44. 2000-03-28
    price $199,900
45. 2000-01-13
    listed $177,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,058 · $588/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,058 · $588/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$7,058
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,848
• − Management: −$2,848
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$13,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,206
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eldred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,817

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 132.02%
• Current HPI: 443.8248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+142.4% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $429,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $434,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listed $439,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listed $439,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $397,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-24 Sold (MLS) $397,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-24 Sold (MLS) $397,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-02-04 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2025-02-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-05 Listed $399,900 HVCRMLS
• 2024-11-01 Listed $399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-01 Listed $399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-19 Listed $429,900 HVCRMLS
• 2024-01-18 Listed $429,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records
• 2020-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-02 Sold (MLS) $18,500 HGMLS
• 2003-12-19 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2003-12-19 Price Changed $18,900 HGMLS
• 2003-03-31 Listed $18,500 HGMLS
• 2002-01-11 Sold (MLS) $197,000 HGMLS
• 2001-12-11 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2001-12-11 Price Changed $199,900 HGMLS
• 2001-07-20 Listed $197,000 HGMLS
• 2000-05-15 Sold (MLS) $177,000 HGMLS
• 2000-03-28 Price Changed $199,900 HGMLS
• 2000-03-28 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2000-01-13 Listed $177,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+19.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,058 · +565.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.