8440 S Valley Spring Ln · Tittabawassee, MI 48623

$591,000

6 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,000 sqft · MultiFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 0.41 ac lot Est $592k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this new construction duplex. 3 Bed 2.5 baths per unit with basements

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3.0-bed/2.5-bath units multifamily listed at $591k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $328/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $591k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Freeland Community School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #46 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $591,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $592,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8440 S Valley Spring Ln	0.00mi	6/5.0	4,000 (0%)	1mo	$591,000	$148	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-53,913
• Equity at exit: $88,120

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $7,199
• Equity at exit: $51,099

Cash invested: $165,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48623

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,099
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$739 /mo · $8,865/yr
• Insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,170

Max offer price $591,000

Occupancy floor 84%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3.0	2.5	$6,000
Total (2 units)			$6,000

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,750
• Closing costs: $17,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (84 chars)

   Take a look at this new construction duplex. 3 Bed 2.5 baths per unit with basements

2. 2026-04-17
   status Pending 84-char remark

   Show marketing remark (84 chars)

   Take a look at this new construction duplex. 3 Bed 2.5 baths per unit with basements

3. 2026-04-13
   listed $591,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (84 chars)

   Take a look at this new construction duplex. 3 Bed 2.5 baths per unit with basements

4. 2026-04-13
   listed $591,000 Active 84-char remark

   Show marketing remark (84 chars)

   Take a look at this new construction duplex. 3 Bed 2.5 baths per unit with basements

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,105
• − Property taxes: −$8,865
• − Insurance: −$2,955
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,760
• − Management: −$5,760
• − Depreciation: −$17,193
• Taxable loss: −$1,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$393
• After-tax cash flow: $8,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This multi-family home presents as move-in ready with good exterior and interior conditions. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its value and appeal to both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers.
• Rental HVAC system inspection and maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for maintaining a comfortable living environment and can attract tenants.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract both buyers and renters.
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers.
• Rental HVAC system inspection and maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for maintaining a comfortable living environment and can attract tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC system inspection and maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for maintaining a comfortable living environment and can attract tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract both buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC system inspection and maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for maintaining a comfortable living environment and can attract tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Freeland Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2615060
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $70,875
• Composite: 50.98/100
• National rank: #1779
• State rank: #46 of 540 in MI

Livability — Tittabawassee

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeland, MI
• Population (ZIP): 15,126

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.02%
• Current HPI: 213.8908
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $591,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-13 Listed $591,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS