Baileywood Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$320,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,015 sqft · SingleFamily · 137 Days on market

↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the enhanced comforts and top-quality craftsmanship of the distinguished Baileywood luxury home plan. Share your culinary masterpieces on the gourmet kitchen's presentation island. Both spare bedrooms offer a spacious opportunity for unique personal style. Your remarkable open floor plan has the space to create the perfect living arrangement for you and yours. A paradise bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet contribute to the everyday vacation of your Owner's Retreat. The versatile study presents an abundance of design potential for the specialty room of your dreams. How do you imagine your Living Weekley experience in this stately new home plan?

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Gourmet kitchen
• Presentation island

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRESENTATION ISLAND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPRAWLING WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE STUDY

🏗️ New construction. The $320,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $350,091.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $321k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-770 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,834 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.42%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,091
• List price: $320,990
• Delta: -8.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42546 Summer Crest Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,035 (+1%)	2mo	$320,000	$157	80
42564 Edmund Rucker Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,015 (0%)	2mo	$324,990	$161	72
42595 Rustico Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,984 (-2%)	2mo	$371,900	$187	72
42591 Rustico Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,950 (-3%)	2mo	$349,900	$179	69
42690 Mystery Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,034 (+1%)	2mo	$338,990	$167	68
42711 Loma Vista Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,068 (+3%)	1mo	$344,990	$167	66
1503 Velado Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,150 (+7%)	3mo	$339,990	$158	61
42631 Reminiscent Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,176 (+8%)	3mo	$329,990	$152	59
42715 Loma Vista Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,866 (-7%)	0mo	$328,990	$176	59
42548 Edmund Rucker Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (-4%)	1mo	$314,900	$162	58
42563 Rustico Rd	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,739 (-14%)	1mo	$289,990	$167	50
42710 Loma Vista Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,741 (-14%)	0mo	$314,990	$181	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $136,199
• Equity at exit: $315,390

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.38×
• Total profit: $429,738
• Equity at exit: $680,150

Cash invested: $98,026 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,836
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$438 /mo · $5,251/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-770

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,063

Max offer price $238,727

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-528	-5% $-649	+0% $-770	+5% $-891	+10% $-1,012
Rent	-10% $-935	-5% $-852	+0% $-770	+5% $-687	+10% $-605
Rate	-1.0pp $-593	-0.5pp $-681	base $-770	+0.5pp $-860	+1.0pp $-953

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,523
• Closing costs: $10,503
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
627 Coyote Canyon Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,024	$1.44	0d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $320,990 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,990 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,990 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,990 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,990 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,990 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,990 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,990 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $320,990 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,990 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,990 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,990 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,990 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,990 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-02-26
    price $309,990 662-char remark

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    Enjoy the enhanced comforts and top-quality craftsmanship of the distinguished Baileywood luxury home plan. Share your culinary masterpieces on the gourmet kitchen's presentation island. Both spare bedrooms offer a spacious opportunity for unique personal style. Your remarkable open floor plan has the space to create the perfect living arrangement for you and yours. A paradise bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet contribute to the everyday vacation of your Owner's Retreat. The versatile study presents an abundance of design potential for the specialty room of your dreams. How do you imagine your Living Weekley experience in this stately new home plan?

16. 2026-02-04
    listed $314,990 Active 662-char remark

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    Enjoy the enhanced comforts and top-quality craftsmanship of the distinguished Baileywood luxury home plan. Share your culinary masterpieces on the gourmet kitchen's presentation island. Both spare bedrooms offer a spacious opportunity for unique personal style. Your remarkable open floor plan has the space to create the perfect living arrangement for you and yours. A paradise bathroom and a sprawling walk-in closet contribute to the everyday vacation of your Owner's Retreat. The versatile study presents an abundance of design potential for the specialty room of your dreams. How do you imagine your Living Weekley experience in this stately new home plan?

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,611
• − Property taxes: −$5,251
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − Depreciation: −$10,184
• Taxable loss: −$15,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,779
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Listed $314,990 Zillow