1885 Pointe Dr · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32407

$270,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Townhouse public records · 524 Days on market

Built 2019 1,960 sqft lot $180/sqft · 25% below area Est $367k · 26% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Hathaway Townhomes where Short-Term Rentals ARE Allowed! This 3 bedroom, 2 and half townhome has a beautiful interior door with nickel hardware, vinyl plank flooring and designer lighting package. Plush carpet is in all bedrooms. The kitchen is equipped with appliances including a smooth top range, microwave, and dishwasher. Upstairs you will find 3 bedrooms with plush carpeting. Two of the bedrooms share a bath with granite countertops and shower/ tub combo. The Master bedroom has tiled shower, a double vanity with granite countertops and a walk-in closet. These townhomes have a single car garage, smart home technology, and include a 6-year builder warranty. This home is in close proximity to the beach, Navy Base, HWY 98, Sports Complex, shopping and fun at Pier Park and more. Take a short walk to the community pool while enjoying beautiful views of the lake. All measurements and pertinent information to be verified by the buyer if important.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Smooth top range
• Granite countertops

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• DESIGNER LIGHTING PACKAGE
• SMOOTH TOP RANGE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILED SHOWER
• DOUBLE VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-607/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 524 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,540 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 524 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,682
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -26.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1944 Pointe Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,496 (0%)	8mo	$269,000	$180	87
7583 Shadow Lake Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,496 (0%)	11mo	$250,000	$167	85
7670 Solana Ln #49	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,695 (+13%)	10mo	$315,000	$186	47
1882 Annabella's Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+9%)	18mo	$249,900	$153	32
1844 Annabellas Dr	0.73mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,404 (-6%)	21mo	$225,000	$160	31
7653 Solana Ln #8	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,695 (+13%)	12mo	$329,900	$195	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-53,496
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-75,942
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,363/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,289

Max offer price $261,066

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	13d	1	0.21mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	21d	1	0.24mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$2,157	$1.52	13d	6	0.35mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	21d	1	0.51mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	21d	1	0.56mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	13d	41	0.61mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	21d	1	0.75mi
6422 W Highway 98 #1405 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1384	$3,850	$2.78	21d	1	0.80mi
6625 Harbour Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	21d	1	0.85mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	13d	1	0.85mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	21d	1	0.85mi
6588 Harbour Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,760	$1.47	21d	1	0.91mi
6728 Sunrise Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	966	$1,600	$1.66	13d	1	0.91mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	13d	12	0.96mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	13d	18	1.11mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	13d	2	1.12mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	13d	1	1.20mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	1.29mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	1.37mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	13d	1	1.41mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	13d	1	1.45mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $270,000 Active 524 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 523 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 522 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 521 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 520 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $270,000 Active 518 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 517 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,000 Active 515 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 514 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $270,000 Active 513 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 512 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 509 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 508 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 507 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 506 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 505 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $270,000 Active 504 DOM
18. 2026-01-28
    price $270,000 968-char remark

    Show marketing remark (968 chars)

    Welcome to Hathaway Townhomes where Short-Term Rentals ARE Allowed! This 3 bedroom, 2 and half townhome has a beautiful interior door with nickel hardware, vinyl plank flooring and designer lighting package. Plush carpet is in all bedrooms. The kitchen is equipped with appliances including a smooth top range, microwave, and dishwasher. Upstairs you will find 3 bedrooms with plush carpeting. Two of the bedrooms share a bath with granite countertops and shower/ tub combo. The Master bedroom has tiled shower, a double vanity with granite countertops and a walk-in closet. These townhomes have a single car garage, smart home technology, and include a 6-year builder warranty. This home is in close proximity to the beach, Navy Base, HWY 98, Sports Complex, shopping and fun at Pier Park and more. Take a short walk to the community pool while enjoying beautiful views of the lake. All measurements and pertinent information to be verified by the buyer if important.

19. 2025-12-18
    price $274,900 968-char remark

    Show marketing remark (968 chars)

    Welcome to Hathaway Townhomes where Short-Term Rentals ARE Allowed! This 3 bedroom, 2 and half townhome has a beautiful interior door with nickel hardware, vinyl plank flooring and designer lighting package. Plush carpet is in all bedrooms. The kitchen is equipped with appliances including a smooth top range, microwave, and dishwasher. Upstairs you will find 3 bedrooms with plush carpeting. Two of the bedrooms share a bath with granite countertops and shower/ tub combo. The Master bedroom has tiled shower, a double vanity with granite countertops and a walk-in closet. These townhomes have a single car garage, smart home technology, and include a 6-year builder warranty. This home is in close proximity to the beach, Navy Base, HWY 98, Sports Complex, shopping and fun at Pier Park and more. Take a short walk to the community pool while enjoying beautiful views of the lake. All measurements and pertinent information to be verified by the buyer if important.

20. 2025-02-05
    price $314,900 968-char remark

    Show marketing remark (968 chars)

    Welcome to Hathaway Townhomes where Short-Term Rentals ARE Allowed! This 3 bedroom, 2 and half townhome has a beautiful interior door with nickel hardware, vinyl plank flooring and designer lighting package. Plush carpet is in all bedrooms. The kitchen is equipped with appliances including a smooth top range, microwave, and dishwasher. Upstairs you will find 3 bedrooms with plush carpeting. Two of the bedrooms share a bath with granite countertops and shower/ tub combo. The Master bedroom has tiled shower, a double vanity with granite countertops and a walk-in closet. These townhomes have a single car garage, smart home technology, and include a 6-year builder warranty. This home is in close proximity to the beach, Navy Base, HWY 98, Sports Complex, shopping and fun at Pier Park and more. Take a short walk to the community pool while enjoying beautiful views of the lake. All measurements and pertinent information to be verified by the buyer if important.

21. 2025-01-11
    listed $330,000 Active 968-char remark

    Show marketing remark (968 chars)

    Welcome to Hathaway Townhomes where Short-Term Rentals ARE Allowed! This 3 bedroom, 2 and half townhome has a beautiful interior door with nickel hardware, vinyl plank flooring and designer lighting package. Plush carpet is in all bedrooms. The kitchen is equipped with appliances including a smooth top range, microwave, and dishwasher. Upstairs you will find 3 bedrooms with plush carpeting. Two of the bedrooms share a bath with granite countertops and shower/ tub combo. The Master bedroom has tiled shower, a double vanity with granite countertops and a walk-in closet. These townhomes have a single car garage, smart home technology, and include a 6-year builder warranty. This home is in close proximity to the beach, Navy Base, HWY 98, Sports Complex, shopping and fun at Pier Park and more. Take a short walk to the community pool while enjoying beautiful views of the lake. All measurements and pertinent information to be verified by the buyer if important.

22. 2024-11-30
    historical
23. 2023-11-05
    listed $330,000 Active
24. 2023-10-27
    historical
25. 2023-10-19
    price $325,000
26. 2023-09-22
    price $330,000
27. 2023-09-11
    price $339,000
28. 2023-09-07
    price $344,900
29. 2023-08-25
    listed $349,900 Active
30. 2023-08-22
    historical
31. 2023-07-19
    status Active
32. 2023-07-18
    historical
33. 2023-05-02
    price $355,000
34. 2023-04-18
    listed $360,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,363 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,363 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$3,363
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$5,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,262
• After-tax cash flow: $655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $270,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $274,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $314,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-01-11 Listed $330,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-11-05 Listed $330,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-10-27 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-10-19 Price Changed $325,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed $330,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $339,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed $344,900 CPARMLS
• 2023-08-25 Listed $349,900 CPARMLS
• 2023-08-22 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-07-19 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2023-07-18 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-05-02 Price Changed $355,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-04-18 Listed $360,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+52.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,363 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.