Mansion 70 Waterfalls Village Plan · Wanakah, NY 14075

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 170 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come tour this 3 bedroom 2 bathroom on a corner lot. Call the office to schedule a tour

Key facts

• Listed 170 days

🏗️ New construction. The $99,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $44,954.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.0% vs local median 3.1% in Wanakah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#508 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.54%
• DSCR: 5.25
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,954
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 122.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Brush Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,066 (+1%)	4mo	$93,500	$88	72
17 Rippleway Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-2%)	1mo	$28,000	$27	64
52 Waterview Pkwy	0.39mi	3/2.0	924 (-12%)	3mo	$65,000	$70	58
41 S Roxbury Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	924 (-12%)	3mo	$40,000	$43	55
50 S Roxbury Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	924 (-12%)	6mo	$84,900	$92	54
147 E Canyon Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,182 (+12%)	8mo	$37,000	$31	50
87 Waterview Pkwy	0.35mi	2/1.5 (-1)	924 (-12%)	11mo	$46,000	$50	47
32 Waterview Pkwy	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-11%)	8mo	$25,000	$27	46
37 Waterview Pkwy	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	11mo	$56,000	$61	42
32 Brookridge Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	2mo	$37,250	$40	38
10 Vibernum Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	924 (-12%)	10mo	$23,500	$25	37
2 Vibernum Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	10mo	$26,000	$28	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 98.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $60,345
• Equity at exit: $6,703

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.00×
• Total profit: $151,052
• Equity at exit: $3,887

Cash invested: $12,587 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14075

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $1,002

Break-even live

Break-even rent $393

Max offer price $44,954

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,033	-5% $1,018	+0% $1,002	+5% $987	+10% $971
Rent	-10% $871	-5% $937	+0% $1,002	+5% $1,068	+10% $1,133
Rate	-1.0pp $1,025	-0.5pp $1,014	base $1,002	+0.5pp $991	+1.0pp $979

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,238
• Closing costs: $1,349
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3580 Sowles Rd Hamburg, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	2d	1	0.64mi
4819 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,055	$1.76	2d	1	0.93mi
4600 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,750	$2.41	2d	13	1.39mi
4591 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,415	$1.92	2d	12	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-01-31
    price $99,900 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Come tour this 3 bedroom 2 bathroom on a corner lot. Call the office to schedule a tour

16. 2025-12-30
    listed $112,740 Active 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Come tour this 3 bedroom 2 bathroom on a corner lot. Call the office to schedule a tour

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,518
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$1,308
• Taxable income: $12,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,886
• After-tax cash flow: $9,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. Minor updates to the interior and landscaping would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611670
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,807
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2291
• State rank: #301 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wanakah

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #8972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,520
• Household income: $83,383
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.10%
• Current HPI: 300.2852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $99,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-30 Listed $112,740 Zillow