95 Red Oak Dr · Palm Harbor, FL 34684

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1979 4,055 sqft lot Est $124k · 13% over $230/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely Double-wide manufactured home in Blue Jay Estates, a 55+ community where you own the land. Newer appliances and A/C. Laminate floor in kitchen and bathrooms. Nicely furnished. Front enclosed porch with vinyl windows and open wood deck at the rear. Blue Jay has a very active social club, lots of activities, a heated pool, shuffleboard and Bocce courts. There is a designated area where you can park your boat or R/V at no additional fee as long as a space is available when first requested. Near beaches, shopping, medical centers and airports.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Newer windows
• Spacious living room

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• OVAL GLASS FRONT DOOR
• LIGHT AND BRIGHT INTERIOR
• NEWER WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Living area 864 square feet; total building area 1,656 square feet; Lot about 0.09 acre (approx. 50 x 81); Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, private road, sewer, trash, water
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Resource Property Management); Monthly association fee $230; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court; Association restrictions: buyer approval required, vehicle restrictions, deed restrictions; Community features: association recreation owned, sidewalks, street lights, golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats OK, number & size limits, max pet weight 15 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Fire hydrant nearby; Sprinkler well
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces north; Completed/ready condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Front porch; Sidewalk; Paved driveway/road; Private lot; Shed(s); Irrigation equipment; In-ground heated gunite pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.1% in Palm Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.12%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,416
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Red Maple Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	856 (-1%)	1mo	$123,000	$144	93
90 Red Oak Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	864 (0%)	6mo	$105,000	$122	92
61 Tanglewood Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	864 (0%)	2mo	$169,000	$196	88
70 Tanglewood Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	864 (0%)	17mo	$185,000	$214	78
159 Hickory Gate Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	984 (+14%)	2mo	$106,000	$108	66
177 Hickory Gate Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	974 (+13%)	8mo	$129,000	$132	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,144
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,504
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34684

• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,337/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$230
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,541

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3610 Sammy Ct Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	797	$2,000	$2.51	4d	1	0.31mi
3583 Whispering Oaks Ln Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1124	$1,800	$1.60	24d	1	0.42mi
3455 Countryside Blvd #4 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$2,050	$2.06	4d	1	0.47mi
3590 Magnolia Ridge Cir Unit G Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,695	$1.56	24d	1	0.48mi
2682 Rachel Ct Palm Harbor, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	3d	1	0.57mi
2678 Markham Ct Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,999	$2.17	24d	1	0.60mi
3726 Albion Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,350	$2.22	13d	1	0.61mi
3726 Albion Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,350	$2.22	14d	1	0.61mi
3781 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$2,500	$2.37	24d	1	0.73mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	24d	1	0.83mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	15d	1	0.83mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	18d	1	0.83mi
2803 Northcote Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,300	$2.19	22d	1	0.92mi
3028 Bonaventure Cir #103 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	24d	1	0.93mi
2998 Bonaventure Cir #104 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,828	$2.03	4d	1	1.05mi
3975 Country Place Ln Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	788	$1,637	$2.08	1d	16	1.08mi
220 Calibre Downs Ln Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1052	$2,299	$2.19	24d	13	1.09mi
2500 Winding Creek Blvd Unit C205 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	946	$1,700	$1.80	4d	1	1.24mi
2500 Winding Creek Blvd Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	946	$1,675	$1.77	3d	2	1.25mi
2500 Winding Creek Blvd Clearwater, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,700	$2.09	2d	3	1.25mi
2420 Winding Creek Blvd #109 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	580	$1,250	$2.16	19d	1	1.32mi
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	4d	1	1.34mi
414 Meadow Ln Oldsmar, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	24d	1	1.34mi
31790 US Highway 19 N Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,066	$2.45	11d	16	1.38mi
114 Meadow Ln #114 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$1,700	$1.93	24d	1	1.38mi
107 Windward Pl Unit 107 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$2,000	$2.28	18d	1	1.39mi
36 Magnolia Ct #4 Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	18d	1	1.40mi
161 Lakeside Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	18d	1	1.43mi
2971 Estancia Blvd #321 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	995	$1,975	$1.98	4d	1	1.44mi
109 Pine Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$2,300	$2.18	24d	1	1.50mi
103 Palmetto Ct #103 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,800	$1.71	24d	1	1.50mi
207 Palmetto Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,700	$1.61	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $230 · $2,760/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $140,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-02
   listed $140,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,337 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,337 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,337
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − HOA: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,622
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$389
• After-tax cash flow: $3,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Harbor

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 79,072
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,029
• Household income: $72,145
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1495.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.23%
• Current HPI: 301.651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+21.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-22 Price Changed $1,900 RENT.
• 2022-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-29 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-17 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,337 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.