15246 Plum St · Cabazon, CA 92230

$190,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 199 Days on market

Built 1979 8,712 sqft lot $152/sqft · 16% below area Est $226k · 16% under ↓ 24% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location, Location, & Opportunity. You may have found a hidden gem in Southern California with potential for the person who may want to be off the grid without being off the grid!? If you are interested in a desert environment, however, you still want to be on a paved street, with utilities, and want to be away from the city, without being too far from civilization, with shopping and restaurants as close as 4 miles or so away. This area is not for everyone. If you don't mind the desert winds that power the local wind generators, the undeveloped land, just a few hundred feet from the front door of this waiting-to-be-rehabbed manufactured two-bedroom, two-bath home, offers lots of potential. The fenced & gated 8,712 ft lot is street to street, with gates at both streets. A toy trailer or RV can be pulled onto the fenced lot. On the property sits a detached wooden storage shed, the home has a covered patio, & a paved driveway with a rolling gate for off-street vehicle parking. The cooling is supplied by a Mini Split, Evaporative cooler, and window AC units. Ask your favorite Realtor to make an appointment so you may visit this property. If you are not familiar with Cabazon, here are some distance estimations. Please double-check for yourself: This property is about 100 Miles East of Los Angeles, about 25 miles West of Palm Springs, about 3 miles South of the Morongo Casino, A few miles South/East of the Cabazon outlets, about 15 miles East of the Walmart in Beaumont.

Key facts

• Gated lot
• Paved driveway
• Paved street

Tags

• PAVED STREET
• FENCED LOT
• GATED LOT
• DETACHED WOODEN STORAGE SHED
• COVERED PATIO
• PAVED DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($841/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#926 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: cost of living D+, employment D, schools F.
• Banning Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,258 of 1,400 in CA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,516 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,613
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -15.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15151 Eucalyptus St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-10%)	12mo	$300,000	$268	61
51811 Adele	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-12%)	6mo	$175,000	$159	51
52076 Maxine Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	6mo	$283,000	$211	48
52224 Date Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	21mo	$300,000	$223	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $29,321
• Equity at exit: $87,635

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $95,468
• Equity at exit: $136,794

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92230

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $427/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,406

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 189 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 188 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 183 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-03-10
    price $190,000 1514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1514 chars)

    Location, Location, Location, & Opportunity. You may have found a hidden gem in Southern California with potential for the person who may want to be off the grid without being off the grid!? If you are interested in a desert environment, however, you still want to be on a paved street, with utilities, and want to be away from the city, without being too far from civilization, with shopping and restaurants as close as 4 miles or so away. This area is not for everyone. If you don't mind the desert winds that power the local wind generators, the undeveloped land, just a few hundred feet from the front door of this waiting-to-be-rehabbed manufactured two-bedroom, two-bath home, offers lots of potential. The fenced & gated 8,712 ft lot is street to street, with gates at both streets. A toy trailer or RV can be pulled onto the fenced lot. On the property sits a detached wooden storage shed, the home has a covered patio, & a paved driveway with a rolling gate for off-street vehicle parking. The cooling is supplied by a Mini Split, Evaporative cooler, and window AC units. Ask your favorite Realtor to make an appointment so you may visit this property. If you are not familiar with Cabazon, here are some distance estimations. Please double-check for yourself: This property is about 100 Miles East of Los Angeles, about 25 miles West of Palm Springs, about 3 miles South of the Morongo Casino, A few miles South/East of the Cabazon outlets, about 15 miles East of the Walmart in Beaumont.

16. 2025-12-01
    listed $230,000 Active 1514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1514 chars)

    Location, Location, Location, & Opportunity. You may have found a hidden gem in Southern California with potential for the person who may want to be off the grid without being off the grid!? If you are interested in a desert environment, however, you still want to be on a paved street, with utilities, and want to be away from the city, without being too far from civilization, with shopping and restaurants as close as 4 miles or so away. This area is not for everyone. If you don't mind the desert winds that power the local wind generators, the undeveloped land, just a few hundred feet from the front door of this waiting-to-be-rehabbed manufactured two-bedroom, two-bath home, offers lots of potential. The fenced & gated 8,712 ft lot is street to street, with gates at both streets. A toy trailer or RV can be pulled onto the fenced lot. On the property sits a detached wooden storage shed, the home has a covered patio, & a paved driveway with a rolling gate for off-street vehicle parking. The cooling is supplied by a Mini Split, Evaporative cooler, and window AC units. Ask your favorite Realtor to make an appointment so you may visit this property. If you are not familiar with Cabazon, here are some distance estimations. Please double-check for yourself: This property is about 100 Miles East of Los Angeles, about 25 miles West of Palm Springs, about 3 miles South of the Morongo Casino, A few miles South/East of the Cabazon outlets, about 15 miles East of the Walmart in Beaumont.

17. 2025-11-23
    historical
18. 2025-09-24
    listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $427 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,444 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,017/yr (+$85/mo · 238.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$427
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$594
• After-tax cash flow: $1,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Banning Unified
• NCES district ID: 0603840
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,303
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #13850
• State rank: #1258 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Cabazon

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #926
• US rank: #24243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cabazon, CA
• City population: 2,105
• Population (ZIP): 2,105

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 41% Two or more races 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Scandinavian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Current HPI: 549.9479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-23.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $190,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $230,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $249,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $427 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.