15493 San Juan Dr · Detroit, MI 48238

$10,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 289 Days on market

Built 1925 3,920 sqft lot $7/sqft · 86% below area ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the latest offering from the Detroit Land Bank Authority. 3 bedroom frame bungalow in need of a lot of work. Use extreme caution when entering this property. Home includes 1 vacant lot located at 15499 San Juan. Please note that the Detroit Land bank Authority is entitled to a tax capture for the 5 tax years subsequent to transferring ownership of the property. The tax capture may be incompatible with tax abatements and/or lot combinations that are otherwise available to the selected purchaser. DLBA will review requests to waive its tax capture rights and may require a payment in lieu of taxes to approve such requests. The payment will be determined upon reviewing the development proforma and effect of any tax abatements on the purchase and development financing. Please refer to DLBA proposal guidelines

Key facts

• Vacant lot
• Frame bungalow
• 3,920 sq ft lot

Tags

• VACANT LOT
• FRAME BUNGALOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $971 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $9k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 122.9% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,317/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 2172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $300 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($9k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $8,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 13.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 122.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 416.30%
• DSCR: 19.52
• GRM: 0.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,231
• List price: $10,000
• Delta: -86.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15379 Woodingham Dr	0.21mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-3%)	4mo	$7,000	$5	77
15703 Northlawn St	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,365 (+2%)	5mo	$70,000	$51	71
16659 Lilac St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$40,000	$31	61
7447 Ellsworth St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-14%)	5mo	$35,500	$31	60
16688 Turner St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,412 (+5%)	6mo	$50,000	$35	57
15021 Petoskey Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,177 (-12%)	1mo	$28,000	$24	55
16890 Monica St	0.72mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,359 (+1%)	7mo	$165,000	$121	54
16820 Santa Rosa Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-9%)	0mo	$10,000	$8	54
16143 Monica St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+12%)	2mo	$175,000	$117	54
15863 Belden St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,156 (-14%)	1mo	$18,600	$16	49
16204 Wisconsin St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,536 (+14%)	1mo	$163,000	$106	43
16811 Stoepel St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	5mo	$138,000	$92	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.06×
• Total profit: $64,558
• Equity at exit: $1,491

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 56.27×
• Total profit: $154,746
• Equity at exit: $865

Cash invested: $2,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48238

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 0.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$12 /mo · $150/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $971

Break-even live

Break-even rent $87

Max offer price $10,000

Occupancy floor 21%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,500
• Closing costs: $300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7350 Globe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	4d	1	0.09mi
15771 Turner St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,049	$1.05	44d	1	0.17mi
15457 Cloverlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,275	$0.85	24d	1	0.35mi
16255 Lilac St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,394	$1.06	17d	1	0.42mi
15791 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1792	$1,100	$0.61	44d	1	0.46mi
16582 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1314	$1,399	$1.06	17d	1	0.55mi
15777 Wisconsin St Unit 77 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	5d	1	0.56mi
14656 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	17d	1	0.64mi
16722 Tuller St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	17d	1	0.65mi
16183 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1370	$1,400	$1.02	44d	1	0.66mi
16230 Indiana St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	18d	1	0.71mi
16546 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1577	$1,500	$0.95	44d	1	0.72mi
15345 Parkside St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,300	$1.13	44d	1	0.76mi
14550 Northlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	17d	1	0.77mi
15765 Washburn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1093	$950	$0.87	44d	1	0.78mi
17147 Monica St Unit 2 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	24d	1	0.83mi
15906 Alden St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	17d	1	0.83mi
17145 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	18d	1	0.83mi
17163 Prairie St Unit 1B Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1317	$1,350	$1.03	44d	1	0.84mi
16834 Fairfield St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1516	$1,363	$0.90	24d	1	0.86mi
Ohio St Unit 4 Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1400	$750	$0.54	44d	1	0.88mi
15708 Birwood St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1255	$1,100	$0.88	5d	1	0.92mi
17159 Northlawn St Unit 17161 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1122	$975	$0.87	5d	1	0.92mi
17215 Warrington Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1015	$2,000	$1.97	44d	1	0.93mi
17195 Northlawn St #2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	24d	1	0.95mi
17195 Northlawn St #1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	20d	1	0.95mi
16174 Princeton St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	44d	1	0.96mi
16174 Princeton St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	19d	1	0.96mi
15512 Mendota St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	931	$1,200	$1.29	5d	1	0.97mi
15512 Mendota St Apt 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	0.97mi
17368 Woodingham Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	44d	1	0.98mi
14242 Ohio St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	44d	1	1.04mi
16889 Washburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,100	$0.85	17d	1	1.05mi
2034 Ewald Cir Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	5d	1	1.08mi
17551 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1036	$1,095	$1.06	44d	1	1.08mi
15760 Monte Vista St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	44d	1	1.09mi
14881 Mendota St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,100	$1.07	24d	1	1.09mi
16934 Ilene St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1516	$1,400	$0.92	20d	1	1.10mi
17530 Roselawn St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	24d	1	1.10mi
14011 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	17d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $10,000 Active 289 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $10,000 Active 288 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $10,000 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $10,000 Active 284 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $10,000 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $10,000 Active 280 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $10,000 Active 279 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $10,000 Active 278 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $10,000 Active 275 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $10,000 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $10,000 Active 272 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $10,000 Active 271 DOM
13. 2025-10-28
    status Active 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Welcome to the latest offering from the Detroit Land Bank Authority. 3 bedroom frame bungalow in need of a lot of work. Use extreme caution when entering this property. Home includes 1 vacant lot located at 15499 San Juan. Please note that the Detroit Land bank Authority is entitled to a tax capture for the 5 tax years subsequent to transferring ownership of the property. The tax capture may be incompatible with tax abatements and/or lot combinations that are otherwise available to the selected purchaser. DLBA will review requests to waive its tax capture rights and may require a payment in lieu of taxes to approve such requests. The payment will be determined upon reviewing the development proforma and effect of any tax abatements on the purchase and development financing. Please refer to DLBA proposal guidelines

14. 2025-10-27
    historical 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Welcome to the latest offering from the Detroit Land Bank Authority. 3 bedroom frame bungalow in need of a lot of work. Use extreme caution when entering this property. Home includes 1 vacant lot located at 15499 San Juan. Please note that the Detroit Land bank Authority is entitled to a tax capture for the 5 tax years subsequent to transferring ownership of the property. The tax capture may be incompatible with tax abatements and/or lot combinations that are otherwise available to the selected purchaser. DLBA will review requests to waive its tax capture rights and may require a payment in lieu of taxes to approve such requests. The payment will be determined upon reviewing the development proforma and effect of any tax abatements on the purchase and development financing. Please refer to DLBA proposal guidelines

15. 2025-09-02
    listed $10,000 Active 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Welcome to the latest offering from the Detroit Land Bank Authority. 3 bedroom frame bungalow in need of a lot of work. Use extreme caution when entering this property. Home includes 1 vacant lot located at 15499 San Juan. Please note that the Detroit Land bank Authority is entitled to a tax capture for the 5 tax years subsequent to transferring ownership of the property. The tax capture may be incompatible with tax abatements and/or lot combinations that are otherwise available to the selected purchaser. DLBA will review requests to waive its tax capture rights and may require a payment in lieu of taxes to approve such requests. The payment will be determined upon reviewing the development proforma and effect of any tax abatements on the purchase and development financing. Please refer to DLBA proposal guidelines

16. 2025-09-02
    listed $10,000 Active 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Welcome to the latest offering from the Detroit Land Bank Authority. 3 bedroom frame bungalow in need of a lot of work. Use extreme caution when entering this property. Home includes 1 vacant lot located at 15499 San Juan. Please note that the Detroit Land bank Authority is entitled to a tax capture for the 5 tax years subsequent to transferring ownership of the property. The tax capture may be incompatible with tax abatements and/or lot combinations that are otherwise available to the selected purchaser. DLBA will review requests to waive its tax capture rights and may require a payment in lieu of taxes to approve such requests. The payment will be determined upon reviewing the development proforma and effect of any tax abatements on the purchase and development financing. Please refer to DLBA proposal guidelines

17. 2025-09-01
    historical
18. 2025-09-01
    historical
19. 2024-11-06
    listed $10,000 Active
20. 2024-11-06
    listed $10,000 Active
21. 1997-06-19
    soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$560
• − Property taxes: −$150
• − Insurance: −$50
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$291
• Taxable income: $12,225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,934
• After-tax cash flow: $8,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,731
• Household income: $33,315
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2172.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% Two or more races 3% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.96%
• Current HPI: 189.6227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-28 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-02 Listed $10,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-02 Listed $10,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-06 Listed $10,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-11-06 Listed $10,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.6%/yr

Latest (2017): $810 · -18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.