2823 Blair Rd · Pollock Pines, CA 95726

$299,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1960 10,454 sqft lot Est $318k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

DUPLEX . .. . A Rare Find. .. Opportunity is Knocking, Live in one side, let the other side help pay the mortgage, Unit 2 is rented. Located in the Heart of Pollock Pines! Only minutes to Hwy 50. Zoned Multi Family 2-3 units. Large lot. Plenty of parking. Each unit is 1 Bedroom, 1 Bath with a full kitchen. Both unit have their own storage shed. Come take a look. . perfect for long term investment, or opening the door to your real estate portfolio. Seeing is believing. .

Key facts

• Plenty of parking
• Zoned multi family
• Large lot

Tags

• DUPLEX
• ZONED MULTI FAMILY
• LARGE LOT
• STORAGE SHED
• PLENTY OF PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Propane service; Septic system; Water meter on site; No irrigation
• Home design: Duplex residential income property; House(s) style; One story
• Construction: Built in 1960
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range
• Bedrooms: Two 1-bedroom units (one bedroom in each unit)
• Flooring: Laminate and linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: Each unit has one full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall furnace; No cooling system
• Interior features: Uncovered deck
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $708/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $290k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.8% in Pollock Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#864 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Pollock Pines Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $299k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.30%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,952
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5980 Pony Express Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+12%)	1mo	$358,000	$276	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $41,678
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $152,188
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95726

• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,134/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$874
• Net cashflow: $1,416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,368

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 61%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$4,160
Total (2 units)			$4,160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5731 Pony Express Trl Unit 2 Pollock Pines, CA	3.0	1.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	1d	1	0.31mi
6301 Fairview Dr Pollock Pines, CA	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,950	$1.62	1d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $299,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2022-03-05
    price $1,100
16. 2015-09-11
    soldstatus $160,000
17. 2006-12-06
    soldstatus $220,000
18. 1990-06-26
    soldstatus $92,000
19. 1990-06-26
    soldstatus $92,000
20. 1989-06-22
    soldstatus $74,000
21. 1985-05-17
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,134 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$139/yr (+$12/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,134
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,994
• − Management: −$3,994
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $12,857
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,086
• After-tax cash flow: $13,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pollock Pines Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0631290
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,474
• Composite: 30.11/100
• National rank: #6334
• State rank: #277 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pollock Pines

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #23561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pollock Pines, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,229

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.87%
• Current HPI: 253.8307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-98.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2022-03-05 Price Changed $1,100 RENT.
• 2015-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 1990-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 1990-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 1985-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,134 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.