18235 Noble Forest Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$292,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2002 5,776 sqft lot Est $257k · 14% over $35/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

FABULOUS 2 STORY HOME OFFERS 4 BEDROOMS, 2 3/4 BATHS ON CORNER LOT. LARGE INVITING LIVING ROOM WITH GAS LOG FIREPLACE, SEPERATE FORMAL DINING AND BREAKFAST ROOMS, OPEN KITCHEN, 4TH BEDROOM AND SHOWER ROOM ON 1ST FLOOR. MASTER BEDROOM, GAME ROOM, 2 BEDROOMS, AND UTILITY ROOM ON 2ND FLOOR. HOME HAS GREAT CURB APPEAL WITH BEAUTIFUL LANDSCAPING AND SPRINKLER SYSTEM. COME SEE IT TODAY!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Large kitchen
• Downstairs bedroom

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• DOWNSTAIRS BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-maintained pool
• HOA & community: Community association (CIA Services) with an annual fee of $425; Community pool and playground; Curbs in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Pre-wired for security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Corner lot in a subdivision; Concrete road access; Entry on slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2002
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Fully fenced backyard with back-yard fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Outdoor storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas, zoned); Central air conditioning (electric, zoned)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Jetted tub; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Ceiling fans; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whispering Pines El (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 697 students, 77% FRL); Humble Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 1,382 students, 81% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 32% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Humble ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,462 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4954 Winding Timbers Cir	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,319 (-3%)	0mo	$277,600	$120	90
12223 English Brook Cir	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,397 (-0%)	1mo	$239,500	$100	86
4939 Falcon Forest Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,639 (+10%)	3mo	$210,000	$80	72
17914 June Forest Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,384 (-1%)	1mo	$289,500	$121	72
5022 Drew Forest Ln	0.12mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,667 (+11%)	3mo	$275,000	$103	68
18042 Noble Forest Dr	0.23mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,639 (+10%)	4mo	$264,000	$100	65
12419 Adams Ridge Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,437 (+2%)	1mo	$320,000	$131	62
5019 Woodland Meadows Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,506 (+4%)	2mo	$245,000	$98	60
5018 Woodland Meadows Ln	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,223 (-7%)	1mo	$239,900	$108	56
5202 Flax Bourton St	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,205 (-8%)	1mo	$260,000	$118	56
5015 Woodland Meadows Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,715 (+13%)	4mo	$265,000	$98	48
18603 Timber Twist Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,710 (+13%)	3mo	$289,900	$107	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-43,255
• Equity at exit: $71,128

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-60,131
• Equity at exit: $75,239

Cash invested: $81,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,626 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax from tax record: −$616 /mo · $7,397/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,917

Max offer price $251,462

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,000
• Closing costs: $8,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18222 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3265	$2,851	$0.87	5d	1	0.04mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	5d	1	0.17mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	11d	1	0.23mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,236	$0.96	4d	1	0.40mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	24d	1	0.49mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	44d	1	0.72mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	44d	1	0.87mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	44d	1	0.90mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,326	$0.99	5d	1	0.96mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,336	$1.08	5d	1	1.03mi
4110 Forest Rain Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2845	$2,370	$0.83	24d	1	1.08mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	24d	1	1.12mi
3818 Oaktrace Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	44d	1	1.14mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	44d	1	1.34mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscaping

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $292,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $292,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $292,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $292,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $292,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,397 · $616/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,397 · $616/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,357
• − Property taxes: −$7,397
• − Insurance: −$1,460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,521
• − Management: −$2,521
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$8,495
• Taxable loss: −$7,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,837
• After-tax cash flow: $-917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+112.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $292,000 HARMLS
• 2014-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-09-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-09-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-08-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-08-11 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2014-08-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-08-03 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2014-08-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-08-02 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2014-08-01 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2014-08-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-07-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-06-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-06-25 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2005-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-08-01 Listed $137,500 HARMLS
• 2005-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-01-31 Listed $137,500 HARMLS
• 2000-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,397 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.