3088 Skipper Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$368,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · Manufactured public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1995 3,920 sqft lot Est $337k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move right into this well-maintained Palm Harbor home, offering 1,670 sq ft of comfortable living space and never having been flooded. Whether you're in search of a second home or a primary residence, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom property is sure to delight. The home features a spacious deck, a covered lanai, and a dock for your boat. Additionally, the finished utility room under the carport is equipped with hot and cold water, as well as air conditioning. This versatile space is perfect for storage, a fishing room, or even entertaining, with direct access to the large deck out back. By boat, you're just minutes away from some of the best beaches and fishing spots that Southwest Flor

Key facts

• Dock for your boat
• Spacious deck
• Covered lanai

Tags

• SPACIOUS DECK
• COVERED LANAI
• DOCK FOR YOUR BOAT
• FINISHED UTILITY ROOM
• DIRECT ACCESS TO LARGE DECK
• NATURE TRAILS IN ST JAMES CITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee; Community boat facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home with vinyl siding; One story; Resale property; Faces west
• Construction: Metal roof; Manufactured construction; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch; Outdoor shower; Storage; Canal access with navigable water; Seawall; Municipal irrigation; Paved road access; Rectangular lot on a cul-de-sac; East exposure; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes bedrooms (no level details provided)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Bathtub; Dual sinks; Eat-in kitchen; French doors / atrium doors; Kitchen island; Combined living and dining area; Separate shower; Cable TV; Workshop; Unfurnished; Single-hung windows; Window shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $368k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $368k).
• Recommended offer: $324k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.23%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $337,340
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3122 Binnacle Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-10%)	11mo	$305,000	$202	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-30,543
• Equity at exit: $54,945

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $11,808
• Equity at exit: $31,861

Cash invested: $103,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,932
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,076/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$901
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,716

Max offer price $368,500

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,125
• Closing costs: $11,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	23d	1	0.06mi
4011 Galt Island Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,000	$2.72	23d	1	0.21mi
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	23d	1	0.26mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	23d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $368,500 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $368,500 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $368,500 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $368,500 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $368,500 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $368,500 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $368,500 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $368,500 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $368,500 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $368,500 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-05-22
    price $368,500
12. 2026-01-29
    listed $394,990 Active
13. 2025-08-31
    historical
14. 2025-05-27
    price $439,990
15. 2025-03-04
    listed $479,990 Active
16. 2025-02-15
    historical
17. 2025-01-15
    price $489,900
18. 2024-09-27
    price $525,900
19. 2024-08-24
    price $527,900
20. 2024-08-15
    listed $529,900 Active
21. 2022-04-08
    soldstatus $485,000 Closed
22. 2022-03-09
    status Pending
23. 2022-02-26
    listed $479,000 Active
24. 2018-06-14
    soldstatus $240,000
25. 2018-06-12
    soldstatus $240,000 Sold
26. 2018-05-01
    price $250,000
27. 2018-05-01
    status Pending With Contingencies
28. 2018-05-01
    price $2,500,000
29. 2018-04-30
    listed $250 Active
30. 2018-04-26
    historical
31. 2018-04-25
    historical
32. 2018-04-13
    price $250,000
33. 2018-03-29
    price $265,000
34. 2018-02-17
    listed $275,000 Active
35. 2018-02-16
    listed $250,000
36. 1999-08-02
    soldstatus $123,900
37. 1995-06-21
    soldstatus $37,000
38. 1993-11-02
    soldstatus $40,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,076 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,076 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,642
• − Property taxes: −$5,076
• − Insurance: −$6,961
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,118
• − Management: −$4,118
• − Depreciation: −$10,720
• Taxable loss: −$160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$38
• After-tax cash flow: $5,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+809.9% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $368,500 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $394,990 FORTMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $439,990 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listed $479,990 FORTMLS
• 2025-02-15 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $489,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-09-27 Price Changed $525,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-08-24 Price Changed $527,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-08-15 Listed $529,900 FORTMLS
• 2022-04-08 Sold (MLS) $485,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-03-09 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-02-26 Listed $479,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-12 Sold (MLS) $240,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-05-01 Price Changed $250,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-05-01 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2018-05-01 Price Changed $2,500,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-04-30 Listed $250 FORTMLS
• 2018-04-26 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2018-04-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-13 Price Changed $250,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-03-29 Price Changed $265,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-02-17 Listed $275,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-02-16 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $123,900 Public Records
• 1995-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1993-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,076 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.