1200 Carpenter Rd #146 · Modesto, CA 95351

$49,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 1987 Fair condition Est $50k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the 55+ Community of Westgate Village, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath unit has a fabulous and private location tucked in the back of the community and is just waiting for you to make it shine, with approximately 1152 square feet of living space and laminate flooring throughout. Wheelchair elevator at the front porch.

Key facts

• Private location
• Wheelchair elevator
• Parking

Tags

• PRIVATE LOCATION
• WHEELCHAIR ELEVATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.8% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Modesto City Elementary (urban): math 15% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #462 of 517 in CA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.37%
• DSCR: 6.00
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,536
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 Carpenter Rd #146	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$49,000	$43	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $75,354
• Equity at exit: $7,448

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.38×
• Total profit: $173,157
• Equity at exit: $4,319

Cash invested: $13,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95351

• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $1,310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,950

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,488
• Closing costs: $1,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1017 Jayhawk Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1279	$2,495	$1.95	13d	1	0.33mi
2712 Peek Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,350	$1.67	13d	1	0.91mi
1506 W Orangeburg Ave Unit 1506 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,600	$2.05	13d	1	1.08mi
1229 W Roseburg Ave Apt 7 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	896	$1,750	$1.95	13d	1	1.21mi
1713 Randazzo Ave Unit 1713 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,895	$1.97	13d	1	1.25mi
508 College Ave Unit 1 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,395	$1.71	13d	1	1.26mi
1712 Carver Rd Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	704	$1,825	$2.59	13d	4	1.30mi
1402 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	13d	1	1.31mi
1001 Stoddard Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,850	$2.27	13d	1	1.34mi
1701 Linwood Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,050	$1.37	13d	1	1.40mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,798
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$1,453
• Taxable income: $15,866
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,808
• After-tax cash flow: $11,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Westgate Village requires minor cosmetic repairs and maintenance to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Light discoloration
• Minor interior walls — Paint appears worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — Improved landscaping increases curb appeal and property value
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing discoloration improves the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Light discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · Paint appears worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — Improved landscaping increases curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing discoloration improves the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Modesto City Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0625130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,725
• Composite: 17.31/100
• National rank: #9083
• State rank: #462 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,498
• Household income: $58,275
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1964.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 40% White 13% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -405.77%
• Current HPI: 360.246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B