3021 14th St E · Samoset, FL 34208

$179,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1995 Est $275k · 35% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Handyman special in a great neighborhood, this house needs everything. If you are looking for a home you can make your own this is the one. The house needs all mechanicals including Central Air Conditioning system, Electrical, and Plumbing, also drywall, cabinets, interior doors and trim, paint, and flooring, whatever it takes to make this home yours. A new roof was replaced in November of 2016. Just drive by and check it out to see if it would be a right fit for your future home. Ask for Peter at 941-920-6265 to make an appointment to look inside. I will be posting interior photos soon so keep checking back.

Key facts

• New roof
• Built 1995
• Listed 23 days

Tags

• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.3% in Samoset — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#645 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,807 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.52%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,264
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1812 34th Ave E	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+6%)	0mo	$265,000	$230	70
1410 24th Ave E	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-4%)	9mo	$253,645	$242	68
842 31st Ave E	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,065 (-2%)	9mo	$320,000	$300	68
1716 28th Ave E	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,150 (+6%)	7mo	$255,000	$222	67
1607 34th Ave E	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,134 (+4%)	12mo	$299,900	$264	67
838 31st Ave E	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,065 (-2%)	13mo	$330,000	$310	64
2105 36th Ave E	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,031 (-5%)	8mo	$261,000	$253	54
2415 19th St E	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,171 (+8%)	6mo	$280,000	$239	52
3611 19th St E	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	7mo	$284,997	$237	52
1936 E 30th Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	996 (-8%)	14mo	$215,000	$216	43
3712 19th St E	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,228 (+13%)	11mo	$350,000	$285	41
2215 19th St E	0.62mi	3/1.0	962 (-12%)	14mo	$269,900	$281	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-17,189
• Equity at exit: $26,764

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,824
• Equity at exit: $15,520

Cash invested: $50,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34208

• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,363/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,535

Max offer price $179,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,875
• Closing costs: $5,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1415 23rd Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1288	$1,600	$1.24	3d	1	0.44mi
1410 21st Ave E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	975	$1,599	$1.64	14d	1	0.51mi
2402 9th St E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1137	$2,000	$1.76	23d	1	0.55mi
3808 11th St E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	23d	1	0.56mi
616 33rd Ave E Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	23d	1	0.59mi
712 26th Ave E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	23d	1	0.59mi
718 26th Ave E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	23d	1	0.59mi
1167 42nd Ter E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1274	$2,025	$1.59	19d	1	0.64mi
505 22nd Ter E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1039	$1,989	$1.91	3d	1	0.80mi
121 33rd Ave E Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1365	$2,500	$1.83	23d	1	0.82mi
350 34th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,559	$1.74	1d	6	0.83mi
313 24th Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,400	$1.90	23d	1	0.84mi
723 44th Ave E Unit 5 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	16d	1	0.84mi
1591 19th Street Ct E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	852	$1,249	$1.47	23d	1	0.93mi
2561 Everson St Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1376	$2,401	$1.74	3d	8	0.97mi
305 30th Ave W Unit A207 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	14d	1	1.09mi
305 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	987	$1,400	$1.42	23d	2	1.09mi
1345 301 Blvd E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,528	$1.75	23d	9	1.12mi
302 26th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1043	$2,005	$1.92	2d	23	1.13mi
425 30th Ave W Unit C308 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,590	$1.72	23d	1	1.14mi
390 301 Blvd W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,495	$1.33	23d	1	1.16mi
515 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,375	$1.37	16d	2	1.20mi
505 30th Ave W Unit E406 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,450	$1.45	23d	1	1.21mi
2835 31st Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,939	$1.82	3d	1	1.23mi
2019 5th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,575	$2.10	3d	22	1.26mi
603 27th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1365	$1,250	$0.92	23d	1	1.27mi
1016 7th St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$2,300	$1.92	3d	1	1.29mi
1818 9th Ave E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0	905	$1,575	$1.74	10d	9	1.29mi
2755 Newbern Banks Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1459	$2,035	$1.39	23d	1	1.30mi
2549 River Preserve Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,649	$1.31	23d	1	1.30mi
2549 River Preserve Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,599	$1.27	16d	1	1.30mi
2626 River Preserve Ct #2626 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,100	$1.67	23d	1	1.35mi
2607 River Preserve Ct Unit 2607 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,900	$1.51	3d	1	1.35mi
806 12th St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$2,050	$2.28	23d	1	1.36mi
1509 8th Ave E Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,350	$1.68	23d	1	1.37mi
702 21st Ave W Unit C Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	1.42mi
2129 49th Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,245	$1.64	3d	1	1.45mi
202 46th Avenue Ter W #409 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,995	$1.84	23d	1	1.46mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	23d	1	1.46mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	19d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,500 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,500 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,500 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,500 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,500 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,500 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,500 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,500 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,500 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,500 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,500 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,500 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,500 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,500 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $179,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,363 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,363 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,055
• − Property taxes: −$2,363
• − Insurance: −$898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,806
• − Management: −$1,806
• − Depreciation: −$5,222
• Taxable income: $426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$102
• After-tax cash flow: $3,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Samoset

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #12763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Samoset, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,004
• Household income: $60,504
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1777.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 33% Black 18% Two or more races 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -353.49%
• Current HPI: 287.0443
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.44%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $179,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,363 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.