404 S Congress Ave · Polo, IL 61064

$20,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily

7,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Contractor special in Polo! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath two-story home offers 950 sq ft of space, a gravel driveway, and plenty of potential for the right buyer. Appliances are included as-is. A great opportunity for someone ready to take on a project and create something new.

Key facts

• 7,500 sq ft lot
• Parking

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($575 rent vs $20k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#548 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Polo CUSD 222 (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #210 of 620 in IL (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elem School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #586 of 2,056 statewide, top 31%, 279 students, 0% FRL); Aplington Middle School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #146 of 665 statewide, top 22%, 115 students, 0% FRL); Polo Comm High School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #462 of 693 statewide, top 68%, 195 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 113 units permitted in Ogle County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ogle County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price.

Recommended offer $20,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.68%
• DSCR: 3.48
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,350
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 S Congress Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	950 (0%)	0mo	$14,000	$15	100
705 S Division Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+5%)	6mo	$72,500	$73	76
409 S Franklin Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	1,041 (+10%)	15mo	$97,500	$94	66
205 S Congress Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	820 (-14%)	9mo	$64,000	$78	63
511 W North St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+5%)	4mo	$26,000	$26	60
204 N Cherry Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	980 (+3%)	21mo	$68,500	$70	59
612 W Mason St	0.36mi	2/1.5	1,037 (+9%)	10mo	$127,000	$122	58
608 W Mason St	0.35mi	2/1.0	896 (-6%)	24mo	$90,000	$100	54
609 W Fulton St	0.56mi	2/1.0	919 (-3%)	20mo	$56,000	$61	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $13,351
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $33,110
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61064

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$121
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $246

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $323	+0% $260	+5% $254	+10% $249
Rent	-10% $214	-5% $237	+0% $260	+5% $283	+10% $305
Rate	-1.0pp $270	-0.5pp $265	base $260	+0.5pp $255	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 S Division Ave Unit 4 Polo, IL	1.0	1.0	600	$575	$0.96	45d	1	0.06mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-03
   remarks 272-char remark
2. 2026-06-03
   listed $20,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $974 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $974 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $6,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$552
• − Management: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $3,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$725
• After-tax cash flow: $2,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polo CUSD 222
• NCES district ID: 1732100
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,589
• Composite: 29.3/100
• National rank: #6555
• State rank: #210 of 620 in IL

Livability — Polo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #548
• US rank: #11547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Polo, IL
• City population: 3,891
• Population (ZIP): 3,891

Population outlook (Ogle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,390 people
• By 2030: 46,346 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 41,772 · -13.7%
• By 2050: 36,911 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 27,130 · -43.9%
• By 2100: 18,627 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogle

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.5% · R 63.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.6pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+7.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.65%
• Current HPI: 151.3314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-02 Listed $20,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $974 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.